摘要
人口老龄化持续加深和产业结构快速转型是新时代中国经济高质量发展所面临的基本结构特征。使用跨国数据进行计量分析的结果表明:伴随着一国经济发展,人口老龄化对工业经济比重具有显著的负向影响,对服务业经济比重具有显著的正向影响。人口老龄化通过总需求影响产业结构的机制作用主要体现在两个方面:一是由于老年人消费中的服务业所占比重大于年轻人,人口老龄化加深会降低消费中的工业比重,提高服务业比重,因此相同消费率下人口老龄化程度越高,工业比重越低,服务业比重越高,这称为集约边际效应;二是人口老龄化加深会提高消费率,降低投资率,而由于消费中服务业比重显著高于投资,人口老龄化会因此降低工业比重,提高服务业比重,这称为广延边际效应。因此,要高度重视人口老龄化这一不可逆转的趋势对经济发展和产业结构的影响,降低人口老龄化带来的消费结构变化和投资率下降对工业发展的负面影响。
Population aging and structure change are important features of contemporary China s economic development.This paper conducts empirical study with the cross-country data and shows that the relationship between population aging and the proportion of industrial economy is significantly negative,and the relationship between population aging and the proportion of service economy is significantly positive.The mechanism through which population aging affects structural transformation by affecting aggregate demand structure can be revealed from two aspects.First,the deepening of population aging will reduce the final consumption expenditure of industry in the industrial composition of consumption,and improve that of service,thereby reducing the proportion of the industry economy and increasing the proportion of service economy.This is called the intensive margin effect.Second,the deepening of the population will increase the consumption rate and reduce the investment rate,because the proportion of services in consumption is significantly higher than in investment,the proportion of industry in investment is significantly higher than in consumption,which will reduce the proportion of industrial economy and increase the proportion of service economy.This is called the extensive margin effect.Therefore,we should pay particular attention to the impact of the irreversible trend of population aging on economic development and industrial structure,and reduce the negative impact of consumption structure and investment rate on industrial development.
作者
邵咪咪
郭凯明
杨丽珊
SHAO Mi-mi;GUO Kai-ming;YANG Li-shan
出处
《产经评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期76-92,共17页
Industrial Economic Review
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“人口和劳动力的规模、年龄结构和质量转变对产业结构转型升级的影响”(批准号:71973156,项目负责人:郭凯明)
广东省特色重点学科“公共管理”项目(批准号:F2017STSZD01)
广东省自然科学基金面上项目“基础设施投资结构转型对产业结构升级和要素收入分配的影响研究”(批准号:2019A1515011287,项目负责人:郭凯明)。
关键词
人口老龄化
产业结构转型
高质量发展
边际效应
aging
structural transformation
high-quality economic development
marginal effect
