摘要
基于联合国COMTRADE数据库提供的HS2002的数据,分别测度中国与挪威2002-2017年水产品贸易RSCA指数,并通过马尔科夫链模型和非参数条件密度估计比较分析中国与挪威水产品贸易比较优势动态演变规律。研究结果表明:入世以来中国和挪威总体水产品贸易均具有比较优势,中国的水产品比较优势弱于挪威,中国水产品比较优势呈下降趋势,挪威比较优势呈上升趋势;中国水产品比较优势的流动性大于挪威。为此中国应第一,加快渔业结构升级;第二,加强对水产品的行政管理;第三,重视水产品品牌培育。
Based on the data of HS2002 provided by COMTRADE database of the United Nations, the RSCA index of aquatic products trade between China and Norway from 2002 to 2017 is measured respectively, and the dynamic evolution law of comparative advantage of aquatic products trade between China and Norway is analyzed through Markov Chain Model and non-parametric conditional density estimation. The results show that China and Norway have comparative advantages in total aquatic products trade since China’s accession to the WTO. China’s comparative advantage in aquatic products is weaker than Norway’s, China’s comparative advantage in aquatic products is on the decline, Norway’s comparative advantage is on the rise, and China’s comparative advantage in aquatic products is more mobile than Norway’s, which is manifested in the strong comparative advantage, weak comparative advantage and weak comparative advantage. The liquidity of disadvantage and comparative disadvantage is greater than that of Norway. Therefore, China should first speed up the upgrading of fishery structure, and then strengthen the administration of aquatic products, attach importance to the cultivation of aquatic products brand finally.
作者
邵桂兰
段会霞
李晨
SHAO Gui-lan;DUAN Hui-xia;LI Chen(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Shandong Qingdao 266100,China;Ocean Development Institute,Ocean University of China,Shandong Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《中国渔业经济》
2020年第3期66-74,共9页
Chinese Fisheries Economics
基金
国家社会科学规划基金项目(11BJY064)
山东省社会科学规划研究项目(16DJJJ14)
青岛市社会科学规划研究项目(QDSKL1701012)
山东省社会科学规划研究项目重大理论与实践问题研究专项(18CSJJ01)资助。
关键词
水产品
动态比较优势
马尔科夫链模型
条件密度估计
aquatic products
dynamic comparative advantage
Markov Chain Model
conditional density estimation
