摘要
为天津市农业生产上的科学管理决策、适宜农作物品种(系)选择、生产结构调整及早期旱涝灾害预警与防治提供科学依据,利用天津市1960-2019年的气象观测数据,选取Z指数旱涝指标,采用气候诊断分析方法,研究农作物生长季旱涝变化特征,并分析气象要素与旱涝的相关性。结果表明:天津市1960-2019年农作物全生育期和旺长期降水量减少,倾向率分别为-13.629 mm/10a和-21.413 mm/10a;苗期和成熟期降水量增加,倾向率分别为2.546 mm/10a和5.238 mm/10a;农作物全生育、旺长期Z指数呈减小趋势,向干旱偏移,苗期和成熟期Z指数呈增大趋势,向湿润偏移;1980年后农作物苗期和旺长期大旱与重旱频率增加,成熟期大涝与重涝频率增加;Z指数与气温、日照时数、风速和蒸发量呈负相关,与降水和空气相对湿度呈正相关,其中日照时数、蒸发量和空气相对湿度对Z指数影响显著或极显著。近60年来,天津市在气候变暖环境下,降水量减少,作物旺长期和苗期近年来干旱频率增加。
In order to provide a scientific basis for the scientific management decision-making,selection of suitable crop varieties(lines),adjustment of production structure and early warning and prevention of drought and flood disasters in agricultural production in Tianjin,in this paper the authors used meteorological observation data from 1960 to 2019 obtained from meteorological monitoring stations in Tianjin Region,and adopted the Z index drought and flood index method and climatic diagnosis and analysis means to study the change characteristics of drought and flood during crop growing seasons,and to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and drought and flood.Results:The precipitation during the crop growing seasons and the vigorous growing period decreased from 1960 to 2019 in Tianjin Region,with inclination rates of-13.629 mm/10a and-21.413 mm/10a,respectively;The precipitation during the seedling stage and the mature period increased,with inclination rates of 2.546 mm/10a and 5.238 mm/10a,respectively.The Z index during the crop growing seasons and the vigorous growing period showed a decreasing trend,and was shifted towards drought;the Z index during the seedling stage and the mature period indicated an increasing trend,and was shifted towards wetness.There was an increasing trend of the frequency of great drought and severe drought during the crop seedling stage and vigorous growing period after 1980,while the frequency of great waterlogging and severe waterlogging after 1980 also showed an increasing trend.The Z index was negatively correlated with air temperature,sunshine duration,wind speed and evaporation capacity,but positively correlated with rainfall and relative air humidity;of which,the Z index was the most significantly affected by sunshine duration,evaporation capacity and relative air humidity.In the context of climate warming,the precipitation in Tianjin Region has been decreasing for nearly 60 years,while the frequency of drought during the vigorous growing period and seedling stag
作者
朱建东
李宏伟
王凤来
吴鸣远
ZHU Jiandong;LI Hongwei;WANG Fenglai;WU Mingyuan(Dongli Meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 300300;Jizhou Meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 301900;Xiqing Meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 300380;Changbaishan Meteorological Bureau,Changbaishan,Jilin 134300,China)
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
2020年第8期140-145,共6页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
基金
科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目“农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用”(05ESN217400412)。
关键词
作物生长季
降水量
Z指数
变化特征
天津
crop growing season
precipitation
Z index
change characteristics
Tianjin
