摘要
利用1961～2010年海河流域内及其周边51个站的降水、气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数等气候因子日数据,采用相对湿润度指数方法揭示了流域50年不同等级干旱的时空演变规律,并剖析干旱与气候变化的关系;再利用小波分析法研究流域相对湿润度指数距平的周期变化规律,预测海河流域未来的干旱化趋势。结果表明:时间上,流域轻旱频率最高,年代际变化上总体趋向干旱化;空间上,东北部为轻旱频发区;西北部的中旱频率较高;重旱主要集中于张家口、忻州、邢台等周边地区;流域降水量和蒸发量的年代/年代际变化呈双降趋势,且后者减小速率相对较小,区域整体干旱化有减弱趋势。流域相对湿润度指数距平的时间序列存在10年尺度的显著变化周期,预计到2017年间海河流域总体仍处于干旱化阶段。
Based on the relative moisture index and daily climatic data of 51 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010,spatiotemporal trend of different grade drought,the relationship between drought and climate change were revealed.And with Morlet wavelet transform,variation period of anomaly annual relative moisture index time series was analyzed,then future tendency of drought in Haihe River basin was predicted.The results indicated that on the temporal distribution,there had a significant increasing drought trend in decadal variation,light drought frequency was the largest.On the spatial distribution,large light drought was frequently occurred in the northeast river basin,the moderate drought was frequently occurred in northwest river basin,heavy droughts occurred in the areas of Zhangjiakou,Xinzhou and Xingtai.The mean annual and decadal precipitation and evaporation had decreased,the linear decreasing rate of evaporation was slower than that of precipitation.It was a weak increasing drought trend in whole river basin.The time series of anomaly annual relative moisture index showed a 31-years variation period,it would be the aridification period in 2018.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第11期61-67,共7页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951102)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目(50721006)资助
关键词
海河流域
干旱化
相对湿润度指数
时空变化
周期性
Haihe River basin
drought trend
relative moisture index
climate change
periodicity
