摘要
本文通过设定政府效用最大化条件,以Triffin比率测度一国适度外汇储备标准,以拓展的泰勒规则拟合国际真实利率波动,将Mundell-Flemming模型的国际收支平衡要求纳入Krugman两地区"中心-外围"模型中,模拟了中国自由贸易港建设所产生的产业聚集效应,还原了政府基于效用最大化原则建设自由贸易港的决策过程,实现了贸易成本的内生化与"中心-外围"模型的动态化。我们以2005年至2015年G20国家消费与经济增长数据为样本,使用Dynare和Matlab软件对模型进行政策仿真模拟,考察了自由贸易港建设的策略、效果以及对紧缩性、扩张性国际货币政策和保护性国际贸易政策的敏感性。研究结果表明:中国自由贸易港建设需要全方位的自由化措施,包括贸易自由化、投资自由化、金融自由化等;中国自由贸易港建设能够促进我国经济增长、产业区位聚集与国际竞争力的提升,并使得我国宏观环境在面对国际外部冲击时反应更为稳健。
By setting the condition of maximizing the effectiveness of the government,an appropriate foreign exchange reserve standard measuring with the Triffin proportion,and fitting the real international interest rate fluctuation with the expanded Taylor’s rule,the requirement of international balance of payments(BOP)of the Mundell-Flemming model was incorporated into the Krugman Core-periphery model to simulate the industrial agglomeration effect resulted from the construction of China’s free trade port.Moreover,the government’s decision-making process for constructing the free trade port based on the principle of maximizing its effectiveness was restored,achieving the endogenization of trade costs and the dynamics of the Center-periphery model.In addition,consumption and economic growth data of G20 countries from 2005 to 2015 were sampled to simulate policies for the model using Dynare and Matlab.In this way,the strategy and effect of constructing the free trade port,as well as its sensitivity towards tightening and expanding international monetary policy,and protective international trade policies could be observed.As can be seen from the result,all-around liberalization measures,including trade liberalization,investment liberalization,and financial liberalization are necessary for constructing the free trade port in China.What’s more,constructing the free trade port in China is conducive to economic growth,industrial location aggregation,and international competitiveness,so that the macro environment can respond robustly in front of external shocks.
作者
黄先海
何秉卓
HUANG Xianhai;HE Bingzhuo
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第8期19-35,共17页
Journal of International Trade
