摘要
为了寻求控制财政赤字和公债规模的破解之道,国际经济学界对财政收支因果关系展开了大量研究。然而,实证分析结果无一定之规,甚至大相径庭。为了探寻实证结果异质性的原因,本文筛选了1985—2019年间的相关实证文献,通过Meta回归分析对样本文献实证研究结果进行了定量分析,在一定程度上解决了这种实证困惑问题。本文的回归结果表明,除了样本数据对财政收支关系实证结论存在影响外,模型特征对财政收支关系结论的影响最为突出。本文同时发现,发达市场经济国家并非恪守"以支定收"原则,地方政府的预算编制也未必完全囿于"以收定支",这些结论不仅打破了学界的"共识",也为政府预算原则的现实选择提供了参考。
In order to find a way to control the fiscal deficit and the scale of public debt,the international economic circle has carried out a lot of research on the causality between fiscal revenue and expenditure.However,the results of empirical analysis are uncertain,or even quite different.In order to explore the reasons for the heterogeneity of empirical results,this paper selects the relevant empirical literature from 1985 to 2019,and systematically describes,identifies and quantitatively analyzes the empirical results of sample literature through Meta-regression analysis,which to some extent solves this problem of empirical puzzle.The regression results of this paper show that in addition to the influence of sample data on the empirical conclusions of fiscal revenue and expenditure nexus,the research methods in the empirical process are the important factors leading to the conclusion of fiscal revenue and expenditure nexus,among which the model characteristics have the most prominent influence on the conclusion of fiscal revenue and expenditure relationship.At the same time,it is found that developed market economies do not adhere to the principle of revenue-based-on-expenditure,and local governments’budgeting is not necessarily limited to expenditure-based-on-revenue.
作者
郭婧
陶新宇
Guo Jing;Tao Xinyu
出处
《财政研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第7期24-38,共15页
Public Finance Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“我国地方财政收支的结构性因果关系研究”(71803203)
中央财经大学青蓝项目“财政预算透明度提升的宏观效应与微观绩效研究”(020150320003)。
