摘要
财政收支关系与赤字的可持续性一直是政府宏观调控关注的核心问题。运用动量一致门槛自回归等多个非线性模型,对政府收支的非对称驱动关系以及财政赤字的长期可持续性的研究,结合考察在财政改善与恶化的不同状况下政府收支的非对称性调整,可以发现:政府收支的自我修正机制使得中国财政赤字具有长期可持续性,但只有在赤字增长过快的情形下,政策当局才会对财政收支进行适应性调整;中国长期存在着"支出驱动收入"的作用关系,赤字性政策的实施可能使得税负与国债规模在未来进一步攀升。即便赤字增长没有超过4.4%的门槛值,也需要在宏观调控中把握好政府的合理支出,并建立有效的预警机制。
The relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure on the one hand and deficit sustainability on the other has long been a central issue for government macroeconomic adjustment.We carried out research on the asymmetric drive relation between government revenue and expenditure and long-term deficit sustainability using a number of nonlinear models including momentum-consistent threshold autoregressive,in combination with an examination of the asymmetric adjustment of government revenue and expenditure under conditions of fiscal improvement and deterioration.Our findings show that the self-correcting mechanism of government revenue and expenditure has made the deficit sustainable in the long term,but policy authorities only make the appropriate adjustments to revenue and expenditure in circumstances where the deficit is growing too rapidly.The functional relationship in which'expenditure drives revenue'is a longstanding feature in China,and deficit policy implementation could see a rise in the taxburden and the size of the national debt in the future.Even if the deficit does not rise above a 4.4%threshold,it is still necessary to have a firm grip on the macroeconomic adjustment of reasonable government expenditure and to establish an effective early warning mechanism.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期37-58,共22页
Social Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273286)
全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201103)
教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重点项目(13JHQ010)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金的资助
