摘要
基于微观调查数据,在理论框架的基础上,利用分位数回归模型对家庭用电量各影响因素的动态影响机制进行实证分析,结果表明:家庭用电量的主要影响因素包括家庭城乡属性、住宅面积、家庭人口规模、人均收入水平、住宅居住时长、主要电器数量等,家庭用电量对电力价格并不敏感;随着家庭用电量的增多,人均收入水平、住宅面积的影响程度呈上升趋势,主要电器数量影响系数呈快速下降趋势,家庭城乡属性对各规模用电量的影响程度较为稳定,家庭人口规模主要作用于中、高用电量家庭,住宅居住时长主要作用于低、高用电量家庭。最后,给出了因地制宜、因户制宜,差异化政策调控的建议。
Based on the household micro-survey data,this paper preliminarily identifies the main factors of household electricity consumption through the model of MLR,and studies the dynamics of different influences of various factors with the change of electricity consumption through the QRM.The main conclusions are as follows:The main influencing factors of household electricity consumption include location,residential square,household population,per capita income,dwelling days,number of appliances,etc.The electricity consumption is not sensitive to electricity price because electricity is a necessity for life,and rigid to demand;The magnitude of the regression coefficient of each influencing factor has changed greatly with the change of the electricity consumption quantile,with the increase of household electricity consumption,the impact of per capita income and residential square increase gradually.The influence coefficient of number of appliances’ shows a rapid decline.Whether the location of family is from urban or rural areas is relatively stable.The population has the greatest impact on households of middle and high electricity consumption.The dwelling days have a relatively large impact on low and high electricity consumption households.Finally,combined with the conclusions,the recommendations for differentiated policies according to local conditions and household conditions are given.
作者
韩金雨
曲建升
刘莉娜
李恒吉
徐丽
范玉洁
HAN Jinyu;QU Jiansheng;LIU Lina;LI Hengji;XU Li;FAN Yujie(Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems,Ministry of Education/College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2020年第8期68-73,94,共7页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家重点研发计划“结构调整与减排管理对碳排放强度的作用规律及参数化”(2016YFA0602803)
中国科学院“西部之光”项目“我国省域居民生活碳排放的时空格局与演化路径研究”。
关键词
家庭用电
影响因素
动态机制
多元线性回归
分位数回归
household electricity consumption
influencing factors
dynamic mechanism
multiple linear regression
quantile regression
