摘要
随着全球化的逐步深入,国家间金融市场的紧密联系为经济周期的跨国传导提供了重要渠道。本文通过构建1978—2018年31个国家的面板数据,考察了世界主要经济体之间经济周期协同性与金融市场一体化的关系。我们的研究发现,金融一体化对经济周期的传导主要取决于经济周期的类型:在金融危机期间,较高的金融一体化程度会加强经济周期在国家之间的传导;而在其他时期,较高的金融一体化会减弱经济周期在国家之间的传导。我们的这一结论不仅适用于发达国家,也适用于发展中国家。
With the development of globalization,the financial linkage between countries serves an important channel for the transmission of business cycles across countries.Using a panel dataset for 31 countries from 1978 to 2018,this paper investigates the relationship between business cycle synchronization and financial integration among the world's major economies.We find that the impact of financial integration on business cycle synchronization depends on the type of shocks:when financial shock hits the economy,a higher degree of financial integration will strengthen the co-movement of business cycles;however,when other shock hits,financial integration tends to weaken the business cycle synchronization.Our findings not only apply to the developed countries,but also to the developing countries.
作者
姚雯
唐爱迪
Wen Yao;Aidi Tang(School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University)
出处
《经济学报》
CSSCI
2020年第2期61-85,共25页
China Journal of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603144)
清华大学自主科研计划(2019THZWJC21)的资助。
