摘要
本文采用面板数据联立方程模型,运用三阶段最小二乘法研究双边贸易强度、专业化分工、金融一体化及政策协调对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家经济周期协动性的传导机制,进一步探索经贸合作的创新发展。结果显示:(1)双边贸易强度、金融一体化、财政政策协调、货币政策协调及"一带一路"政府间合作谅解备忘录对经济周期协动性具有显著的促进作用,而专业化分工会减弱经济周期的协动程度。(2)合作谅解备忘录对经济周期协动性的正向影响大于财政政策和货币政策协调对经济周期协动性的正向影响之和。(3)各传导机制的相对重要性存在显著差异,影响程度由大到小依次为:双边贸易强度、金融一体化、合作谅解备忘录以及专业化分工。
This paper adopts the panel data simultaneous equation model and the three-stage least square method to study the transmission mechanism of bilateral trade intensity,specialized division of labor,financial integration and policy coordination on the business cycle synchronization between China and countries along the"Belt and Road",so as to further explore the innovative development of economic and trade cooperation.The results show that:(1)Bilateral trade intensity,financial integration,fiscal policy coordination,monetary policy coordination and the"Belt and Road"inter-governmental memorandum of understanding on cooperation have a significant role in promoting the business cycle synchronization,while the specialization of labor division will weaken the degree of business cycle synchronization.(2)The positive impact of intergovernmental memorandum of understanding on the business cycle synchronization is greater than the sum of the positive impact of fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination on the business cycle synchronization.(3)There are significant differences in the relative importance of each transmission mechanism,and the influence degree is from the largest to the smallest:bilateral trade intensity,financial integration,intergovernmental cooperation memorandum of understanding and specialization.
作者
李林玥
路平
Li Lin-yue;Lu Ping
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期102-110,共9页
Economist
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“新常态下中国经济与世界经济周期协动性的传导机制及相关政策研究”(71503284)
中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院2019年一流建设项目——建设开放型世界经济背景下对外贸易政策研究子课题“中国与‘一带一路’国家的经贸合作创新发展及政策协调研究”(GMYL2019020)
关键词
“一带一路”
经济周期
传导机制
经贸合作
The"Belt and Road"
Business Cycle
Transmission Mechanism
Economic and Trade Cooperation
