摘要
对于多数发展中国家而言,国家意志主动实施和驱动的结构性改革,必然会推动国家的经济结构、社会结构乃至制度结构发生动态演化,由此必然会造成不同结构状态下所蕴含的不同经济潜在增长率水平,一国不同的结构性状态决定着不同的经济潜在增长率最高水平。当前中国经济一方面正处于原先一轮结构性改革效果的边际作用效应末尾阶段和新一轮结构性改革启动阶段的交替和转换时期;另一方面正处于原先一轮政府刺激政策带来的结构性扭曲效应消化阶段和新一轮供给侧结构性改革深入塑造新经济结构阶段的交替和转换时期,从长远看,中国经济潜在增长率并不必然处于持续下降通道。中国新一轮供给侧结构性改革落实到位,会带来结构性经济潜在增长率的提升,从而将中国经济增速维持在一定水平。当前,供给侧结构性调整速度过缓背后所隐含的各种制度藩篱阻力、需求侧结构性锁定、所有制结构失衡、创新链扭曲性失衡、金融结构转化停滞、人才供给结构扭曲等因素阻碍了中国结构性经济潜在增长率的提升。改革思路是,要高度关注和强化制度性结构性改革在塑造和提升中国经济潜在增长率中的基础性作用,密切关注收入结构的扭曲性对需求侧结构性锁定问题,破解所有制结构失衡与金融结构转化停滞对中国结构性经济潜在增长率的制约效应。
For most developing countries,the structural reform,actively implemented and driven by na-tional will,is inevitably fostering changes of national economic structure,social structure andeven institutional structure,which will absolutely push up economic potential growth rate of dif-ferent levels and in different structural states of a country.And these states will in turn deter-mine how high a nation’s economic potential rate may be.At present,the economy of China isat the turn of two rounds of its structural reform with marginal effect;and meanwhile,it is alsoat the turn of two stages with the structural distortion effect brought forth by the previous roundof government stimulus policies and with the alternation and transformation resulted from thenew round of supply-side structural reform in shaping the new economic structure.In the longrun,the potential growth rate of China’s economy is not necessarily on the decline continuously.When the supply-side structural reform of a new round is implemented in China,it will raisethe potential growth rate of the structural economy,thus maintaining the growth rate of China’seconomy at a particular level.At present,slowing down the speed of supply-side structuraladjustment are such factors as various institutional barriers,structural lock-in on the demandside,unbalanced ownership structure,distorted innovation chain,stagnant transformation of fi-nancial structure and distorted talent supply structure.They simply hinder the improvement ofthe potential growth rate of China’s structural economy.The reform is designed to shift close at-tention to and enhance the basic role of institutional structural reform in shaping and improvingthe potential growth rate of China’s economy.Close attention should also be paid to the structur-al lock-in problem of the distorted income structure on the demand side,so as to diminish therestrictive effect,resulted from the imbalance of ownership structure and the stagnation of finan-cial structure transformation,on the potential growth r
出处
《南京大学学报（哲学．人文科学．社会科学）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期38-55,158,共19页
Journal of Nanjing University(Philosophy,Humanities and Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71973139)
教育部重大专项课题(19JZDZ002)。
