摘要
本文基于我国34类工业行业的年度数据,识别信贷配置偏向特征对结构性杠杆的影响,以及货币政策应对效应的特征事实:信贷偏向的存在导致不同产权性质企业杠杆变化呈现异质性,这种异质性所产生的结构性杠杆现象因经济周期不同阶段而异,传统总量型货币政策工具难以有效解决结构性杠杆问题。为更深入理解这一现象以及结构性去杠杆下货币政策最优选择问题,本文通过构建一个同时包含信贷配置偏向特征、企业杠杆结构变化特征、总量型与结构型货币政策工具影响特征的DSGE模型进行分析,研究结果表明:总量型货币政策数量工具的宽松操作可以有效应对技术冲击下结构性杠杆问题;总量型工具紧缩资金供给,结合结构型工具定向紧缩,是应对成本推动冲击下结构性高杠杆问题的较好选择;当经济面临风险冲击下结构性杠杆和经济下行并存问题时,需要结构型货币政策数量工具和价格工具同时操作,紧缩国企贷款,同时降低民企融资成本。
The degree of leverage of China’s non-financial corporate sector has risen rapidly since the international financial crisis in 2008. China has the highest leverage level among major global economies, and has the structural characteristic that large and state-owned enterprises have a more significant process of leverage increase than private SMEs. The reasons are complex, but we observe that when the financial structure is dominated by indirect financing, the non-market-oriented interest rate factor weakens the pricing function of financial resources, combined with rigid redemption due to implicit government guarantees, insufficient competition, and serious homogeneity in the financial industry. This results in a credit bias in terms of the property rights and scale discrimination of enterprises during the allocation of credit resources, which leads to a structural mismatch of financial resources and exacerbates the structural leverage problem.The traditional monetary policy is the monetary aggregate adjustment policy, but this faces a dilemma in dealing with structural leverage. An expansionary monetary policy helps to reduce the interest burden and may stimulate the real sector to obtain more loans. However, a tight monetary policy can restrain the overall leverage level, and thus further exacerbate structural leverage problems. The People’s Bank of China recently implemented various structural monetary policy instruments, such as the targeted medium-term lending facility, and monetary policy thus began to show structural features. Thus, making the optimal choice between tradition-oriented and structure-oriented monetary policy instruments, and exerting the structural adjustment effect of the structural monetary policy, have become important variables that must be considered when resolving the policy of structural leverage.Existing studies analyze the leverage problem and monetary policy responses from various perspectives, and many ideas and methods are proposed. However, the assumptions, leverage character
作者
殷兴山
易振华
项燕彪
YIN Xingshan;YI Zhenhua;XIANG Yanbiao(Hangzhou Central Sub-branch,the People's Bank of China)
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期60-77,共18页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
信贷偏向
结构性杠杆
结构型货币政策工具
Credit Bias
Structural Leverage
Structural Monetary Policy Instrument
