摘要
针对水下采油树系统事故频发且相关数据不易获得的问题,基于贝叶斯网络将水下采油树系统划分为水上部分、水下部分和FPSO 3个模块,考虑不同模块间的相互依赖性关系,结合突发失效与正常的退化趋势,建立了水下采油树系统的剩余寿命预测模型,分析相应的模块可靠性,结合失效阈值对剩余寿命进行了预测。结果表明,水下采油树系统的整体可靠性低于任一模块的可靠性,其退化过程先快后慢,并大体呈指数分布;高强度的突发失效将使系统失效过程加速,进而减少设备的剩余寿命,考虑相互依赖性的设备剩余寿命明显低于不考虑相互依赖性时的剩余寿命。
In view of the frequent failure of subsea Christmas tree system and difficulty in obtaining relevant data,the subsea Christmas tree system can be divided into three modules of the above-water,subsea and FPSO modules based on Bayesian network.A remaining life prediction model of subsea Christmas tree system is established by considering the interdependence relationships between different modules,and combining sudden failure with normal degradation trend.The remaining life of subsea Christmas tree system can be predicted through analyzing the reliability of corresponding modules and considering failure thresholds.The results show that the overall reliability of Christmas tree is lower than that of any individual module,and its degradation process goes fast at first and then slows down,generally distributed exponentially.High-intensive sudden failures will accelerate the failure of this system,thereby reducing the remaining life.The remaining life when considering the interdependence is significantly shorter than that without considering the interdependence.
作者
袁晓兵
陈国明
范红艳
邵筱焱
杨超
葛伟凤
蔡宝平
YUAN Xiaobing;CHEN Guoming;FAN Hongyan;SHAO Xiaoyan;YANG Chao;GE Weifeng;CAI Baoping(College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum,,Qingdao,Shandong 266580,China;CNOOC Safety&Technology Services Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300456,China)
出处
《中国海上油气》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期171-178,共8页
China Offshore Oil and Gas
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“海底复杂环境下深水采油树系统失效机理及故障诊断方法研究(编号:51779267)”
国家重点研发计划项目“水下生产系统数字化自主型预测与生产优化技术研究及应用示范(编号:2019YFE0105100)”部分研究成果。
关键词
水下采油树系统
贝叶斯网络
相互依赖性
可靠性
突发失效
剩余寿命预测
subsea Christmas tree system
Bayesian network
interdependence
reliability
sudden failures
remaining life prediction
