摘要
步进应力加速退化试验的建模与剩余寿命估计是产品视情维护和健康管理中的一个关键问题。针对传统加速退化建模方法没有考虑同类产品之间个体差异的问题,提出一种基于维纳过程的加速退化建模和剩余寿命估计方法。利用维纳过程对单个应力下的退化过程建模,并将维纳过程中的漂移系数看成随机变量以描述个体差异。依据该模型,可以得到产品的剩余寿命信息和可靠性信息。提出一种随机变量加速模型,该模型将传统加速模型中的参数看成随机变量以描述个体差异,传统加速模型是其特例。针对步进应力加速退化试验的测量数据,提出一种加速退化模型未知参数的两步极大似然估计方法。以激光器为例的仿真试验结果表明,所提方法的模型拟合性和剩余寿命估计精度都优于现有建模方法,具有一定的工程应用价值。
Accelerated degradation process modeling and remaining useful life（RUL） estimation based on Accelerated degradation testing（ADT） are the essential parts of condition based maintenance and health management. Among the literature about the accelerated degradation process modeling, the current methods didn’t consider the unit-to-unit variation of the equipment with the same type. Therefore, we present an accelerated degradation process modeling and RUL estimation method based on Wiener process. The Wiener process is used to model the degradation process of a single stress, and the drift coefficient is considered as a random variable to describe the unit-to-unit variation of different equipment. Based on the presented model, the information of reliability and RUL can be obtained. The parameter of the traditional acceleration model is considered as a random variable to describe the unit-to-unit variation of different equipment, and the traditional method turns out to be its special case. Through the step stress ADT data, a two-step maximum likelihood estimation method is presented to estimate the unknown parameters of the presented model. The results of the simulation about the laser degradation show that the presented method performs better than the traditional method and thus can be potentially applied in practice.
出处
《机械工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第16期33-40,共8页
Journal of Mechanical Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41174162
61174030
61104223
61370031
61374138)
关键词
加速退化模型
维纳过程
剩余寿命估计
步进应力
极大似然估计
accelerated degradation model
wiener process
remaining useful life estimation
step stress
maximum likelihood estimation
