摘要
新冠疫情爆发导致人口流动被迫中断,致使近年来频频发生的节后“用工荒”问题变得愈加突出。为了解决用工短缺的问题,地方政府争相出台政策争抢外来务工人员,以期尽快实现复工复产。在此背景下,本文重新审视了快速城镇化进程与相对滞后的户籍制度改革之间的矛盾,从人口流动视角,反思“用工荒”现象及其背后折射出的农民工尚未完全融入城市生活的问题,并讨论短期政策解决劳动力供求矛盾的有效性。在搜集和整理疫情期间366个地级以上城市推动企业复工复产系列政策共计505份的基础上,本文首先利用百度迁徙大数据刻画春节期间城市间的人口流动情况和城市内部的复工复产情况;其次使用双重差分(DID)模型,检验人口流动对复工复产的影响,以及复工政策在其中所起的作用。研究结果表明,春节期间人口净流出地区更容易遭遇劳动力短缺问题,进而对复工复产造成负面影响;复工政策的出台有助于复工复产的推进,但政策数量并不会明显影响城市的复工情况;并且,随着城市人口净流出规模的递增,政策对复工复产的积极作用逐渐消失。因此,政策有效性的大小并不取决于政策数量,政策数量也不一定是越多越好,同时,政策无法完全消除由人口净流出造成的劳动力短缺问题对复工复产的负面影响。因此,要从根本上缓解节后“用工荒”问题,不能仅仅依靠短期的扶持政策,更需要通过深化户籍制度改革,推进包容性城市建设,从身份、观念、权利等方面帮助农民工群体完全融入城市生活,实现农业转移人口高质量市民化,真正实现农业转移人口“进得来,留得下”。
Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020,many migrant workers are unable to return to work as planned,causing the post-Chinese-New-Year'labor shortage'more prominent and serious than ever before.To address this issue,local governments have introduced various policies to attract migrant workers,in a bid to stimulate work and production resumption.Against this background,this paper attempts to revisit the'labor shortage'and'migrant workers'problems arising from the rapid urbanization and much overdue household registration system reform from the perspective of population migration,with a further discussion on the efi^ctiveness of the short-term policies on labor supply and demand.By collecting 505 recently released supporting policies and Baidu migration data of 366 cities at or above the prefecture level,this paper analyzes how migrant workers^ect the process of work resumption and the role of policies in it,aiming to reveal the problems underneath the large-scale migrant worker population during the urbanization process in China.The results show that supporting policies can accelerate work resumption.However,this paper finds that the number of policies does not have a significant Meet,which suggests that additional polices would not guarantee a better result.In addition,it is harder to accelerate work resumption with an increased population outflow before the Chinese New Year,which further affects the e^ectiveness of supporting polices.Therefore,it is important to combine short-term policies supporting migrant workers with long-term mechanisms reforming household registration system to achieve a more inclusive urbanization and to facilitate the registration of rural migrant workers as permanent urban residents.
作者
张蔚文
卓何佳
董照樱子
ZHANG Wei;ZHUO He-jia;DONG Zhao-ying-zi(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310058,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期29-39,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“城市群视角下特色小镇促进城乡协调发展的机制和路径研究”(批准号:71874156)。
关键词
新冠肺炎
流动人口
复工复产
复工政策
用工荒
COVID-19
migrant worker
work and production resumption
work resumption policy
labor shortage
