摘要
为进行高炮毁歼概率的直接检测,从毁歼概率定义出发,分析各类试验方法,指出应优先选择以毁歼数为判据的直接试验方法。给出毁歼事件的可检测定义,推导计算模型,进行以毁歼数为判据的试验设计;采用递推计算代替查表计算,解决表格精度制约计算精度的问题。通过具体算例,证明不能简单采用毁歼概率的最大似然估计作为评判标准;分析指标要求、试验风险和最小毁歼频率的关系,完成具体型号试验次数与预期最小毁歼数的计算。结果表明,直接试验方法具有可行性,能够支撑试验设计的优化。
The anti-aircraft artillery kill probability is mainly tested by indirect test method,and the direct test method with the highest credibility is studied.For the direct test,the definition of kill probability is determined,various test methods are analyzed,the direct test method with the quantity of killed targets as the criterion should be selected,and a detectable definition of the kill event is presented.The test design for judging kill probability by quantity of killed targets is made.Instead of finding the results in a table,the recursive calculation model is derived to achieve higher calculation accuracy.It is proved that the maximum likelihood estimation of kill probability cannot be simply used as the criterion.The relationship among indicator,test risk and the minimum kill frequency is analyzed.The total number of tests and the minimum quantity of targets to be destroyed are calculated for a weapon system.The results show that the direct test method is feasible and can support the optimization of test design.
作者
谢杰涛
吴娟
王树恩
范兆军
韩百刚
XIE Jietao;WU Juan;WANG Shu'en;FAN Zhaojun;HAN Baigang(Unit 32200 of PLA, Jinzhou 121000, Liaoning, China)
出处
《兵工学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期634-640,共7页
Acta Armamentarii
基金
国防重点科研项目(2014年)。
关键词
高炮
毁歼概率
试验设计
直接试验
试验风险
anti-aircraft artillery
kill probability
test design
direct test
test risk
