混合所有制改革中周期性公司高质量估值路径——基于宏观经济波动视角被引量：1

A High Quality Valuation Path for the Cyclical Companies in the Mixed Ownership Reform——Based on the perspective of macroeconomic fluctuations

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摘要新时代的新改革被赋予新任务。为防止国有资产流失和实现产权交易平等,我国新一轮混合所有制改革对周期性公司高质量估值提出要求。文章基于宏观经济波动视角,尝试引入宏观经济波动修正系数,对周期性公司收益法估值模型进行理论修正和实证检验。研究认为:(1)宏观经济因素是影响周期性公司价值的重要变量。其中,宏观经济波动对周期性公司收益额增长率及折现率均具有一定影响,且宏观经济变量对不同估值参数的影响不尽相同;(2)量化宏观经济波动对周期性公司估值的影响,需要分别测算宏观经济变量对周期性公司收益额增长率及折现率的影响弹性,以及测算相应的宏观经济变量异动值,具体可采用将多元回归分析和H-P滤波法相结合的方式;(3)将宏观经济波动的影响合理纳入周期性公司估值框架,探索混合所有制改革中的周期性公司高质量估值路径,有利于助力混合所有制改革的有序推进和高效实践。 There are new tasks to be undertaken during the new era of reform.In order to prevent the loss of state owned assets and to achieve equality in property rights transactions,high quality valuation of cyclical companies is required in the new round of mixed ownership reform in the country.From a macroeconomic perspective,this paper attempts to introduce the macroeconomic volatility correction coefficient and to theoretically and empirically test the periodic corporate income method valuation model.The findings of the research include(1)Macroeconomic factors are important variables that affect the values of cyclical companies.Among these factors,macroeconomic fluctuations have certain effects on the growth rate and discount rate of these companies,and the impact of the macroeconomic variables on different valuation parameters is different.(2)To quantify the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the valuation of cyclical companies,it is necessary to calculate the elasticity of the impact of macroeconomic variables on the growth rate and discount rate of cyclical corporate earnings,and to calculate the corresponding dynamic values of these macroeconomic variables.The combination of multiple regression analysis and HP filtering method is used for this purpose.And(3)To promote the orderly advancement and efficient practice of mixed ownership reform,it is conducive to reasonably incorporate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations into the cyclical company valuation framework,and to explore the high quality valuation path for the cyclical companies in the mixed ownership reform.

作者陈蕾徐琪 Chen Lei;Xu Qi(School of Public Finance and Taxation Capital University of Economics and Business;Beijing China Railway International and Tendering Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院北京中铁国际招标有限公司

出处《宏观质量研究》 CSSCI 2020年第3期71-85,共15页 Journal of Macro-quality Research

基金国家社科基金项目(15CGL013)资助。

关键词混合所有制改革宏观经济波动周期性公司资产评估模型修正 Mixed Ownership Reform Macroeconomic Fluctuation Cyclical Company Asset Appraisal Model Revision