摘要
考虑多元利益冲突之间的复杂关系,基于压力状态响应模型,从政府、移民、媒体、项目法人等主体,构建压力状态响应多元利益冲突风险评估模型,并以淅川县为例探讨南水北调特大型水利工程项目建设过程中利益相关者交叉冲突风险问题。研究表明:淅川县2008—2017年多元利益冲突风险综合指数呈现下降态势,冲突风险等级经历了风险较大—风险较小的演变历程,但仍存在潜在利益冲突增大的风险。从实证分析可以看出,利益分享机制、移民受教育程度、社会保障率、舆情危机指标对淅川县多元利益冲突风险影响较大,研究结果可以为其他类似的特大型工程项目风险评估与防范提供借鉴。
Considering the complex relationship in multi-interest conflicts,a risk assessment model for pressure-state-response multi-interest conflicts is established from the subjects of government,immigrants,media and project entity based on the PSR model.Through the case study of Xichuan County,the conflict risks of the stakeholders during construction of South-to-North Water Diversion Project are investigated.The results show that the multi-interest conflict index of Xichuan County from 2008 to 2017 is in a decreasing trend,and the conflict risk level witnesses the“Large to small”process,but there is still potential sharply increasing risk.The empirical analysis indicates that the interest-sharing mechanism,immigrants'education level,social security rate and public opinion crisis have great impact on the multi-interest conflict risks.The research achievement may be helpful for risk assessment and prevention of other similar super-giant water projects.
作者
黄德春
张蕊
贺正齐
HUANG Dechun;ZHANG Rui;HE Zhengqi(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization,Nanjing 211100,China;Institute of Industrial Economics,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《水利经济》
2020年第2期74-80,84,共8页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金(71573072,71603070)
江苏高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队项目(2017ZSTD002)。
