摘要
为研究梯级水库漫坝连溃的风险,并探索贝叶斯网络在水库连溃风险分析中的可行性,通过构建洪水作用下双库连溃的贝叶斯网络模型,并选取四川省大渡河上两相邻梯级水库进行分析,以推求水库漫(溃)坝概率及评估连溃风险。分析过程表明贝叶斯网络方法能直观、简便地分析多风险源共同作用下的水库群连溃风险问题。结果表明,两水库天然洪水漫坝条件概率的数量级均为10-6,洪水引发单库漫坝风险较小;正常蓄水位以上,上游水库溃坝洪水致下游水库漫坝条件概率超0. 8,即上游水库溃坝导致水库连溃的风险很大。
This paper evaluated the risk of reservoirs collapse caused by nature-flood-based dam overtopping using a Bayesian network.Probabilities of single and cascade reservoirs collapse were calculated for reservoirs in Sichuan Province.The analysis demonstrates that Bayesian network is intuitive and user-friendly to investigate the risk of reservoirs collapse under multiple risk sources.A same conditional dam overtopping probability magnitude of 10-6 is derived,indicating a low risk of single reservoir dam overtopping.However,the conditional probability of dam overtopping is over 0.8 when the water storage level is higher than normal,meaning there is a high probability of dam overtopping under this condition.
作者
李平
黄跃飞
李兵
LI Ping;HUANG Yuefei;LI Bing(School of Civil Engineering and Water Resources,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期677-684,共8页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB036402)~~
关键词
洪水
漫坝概率
水库连溃
土石坝工程
贝叶期网络
蒙特卡罗模拟
flood
probability of dam overtopping
reservoirs collapse
embankment dam
Bayesian network
MonteCarlo simulation
