摘要
为了研究风险偏好对地铁项目施工阶段施工人员与安全管理人员行为决策的影响,将前景理论引入演化博弈建模及分析过程,构建区别于传统收益矩阵的前景安全效用价值感知矩阵,得到施工人员与安全管理人员在不同风险偏好下的最优策略。结合数值仿真研究得出:地铁施工安全群体凭借其个人风险偏好倾向于选择预期效用最大化决策,安全群体通过风险规避才能保证地铁项目施工阶段安全系统稳定。研究结果从完善安全管理奖惩制度、培养安全群体安全理念、转变传统安全风险管控观念3个方面为地铁项目施工提出了安全管理建议。
In order to find out the influence of risk preference on the behavior decision-making of construction personnel and safety management personnel in the construction stage of metro project,the prospect theory was introduced into the modeling and analysis process of evolutionary game.A value perception matrix of prospect safety utility was constructed,which was different from the traditional benefit matrix,and the optimal strategies of construction personnel and safety management personnel under different risk preferences were obtained.Combined with the numerical simulation,the results showed that the metro construction safety groups tended to choose the decision of maximizing the expected utility based on the individual risk preference,and the safety groups could only ensure the stability of safety system in the construction stage of metro project through the risk aversion.The safety management suggestions for the metro project construction were put forward from three aspects of improving the safety management reward and punishment system,training the safety concept of safety groups,and changing the traditional safety risk management concepts.
作者
王志强
刘硕
马婷婷
王陶陶
孟玮
WANG Zhiqiang;LIU Shuo;MA Tingting;WANG Taotao;MENG Wei(College of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao Shandong 266520,China;Smart City Construction Management Research Center(New Think Tank),Qingdao Shandong 266520,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期138-144,共7页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71471094)
山东省重点研发计划(软科学项目)一般项目(2019RKB01459)。
关键词
风险偏好
地铁施工
安全管理
演化博弈
行为仿真
risk preference
subway construction
safety management
evolutionary game
behavior simulation
