摘要
人口老龄化除了会直接影响城镇家庭消费之外,还会通过住房价格间接影响城镇家庭消费。根据城镇家庭对未来住房价格变动的异质性预期,将城镇家庭划分为耐心家庭和缺乏耐心家庭。在包括耐心和缺乏耐心家庭以及住房开发企业部门的动态随机一般均衡模型中加入人口老龄化冲击和住房偏好冲击,以研究人口老龄化通过房价收入比对城镇家庭消费率的影响。研究结果表明:人口老龄化会提高耐心家庭消费率,而会抑制缺乏耐心家庭消费率。人口老龄化会通过生命周期假说的直接财富效应显著提高耐心家庭消费率。人口老龄化会通过房价收入比的间接替代效应显著抑制缺乏耐心家庭消费率。
In addition to directly affecting urban households’consumption,population aging can also indirectly affect urban households’consumption through housing price.This paper divides urban households into patient and impatient households based on the heterogeneity expectations of urban households on future changes in housing prices.It adds population aging shock and housing preference shock to the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes patient and impatient households as well as housing development enterprises,so as to study the impact of population ageing on urban households’consumption rate through housing price-to-income ratio.The results show that:population aging will increase the consumption rate of patient households,while inhibiting the consumption rate of impatient households;population aging will significantly increase the consumption rate of patient households through the direct wealth effect of life cycle hypothesis;population aging will significantly inhibit the consumption rate of impatient households through the indirect substitution effect of housing price-to-income ratio.
作者
王勇
WANG Yong(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期16-25,共10页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
江西省高校人文社会科学研究青年项目“人口老龄化对城镇家庭消费的影响研究”(JJ19206)。
关键词
动态随机一般均衡模型
人口老龄化
房价收入比
消费率
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
population aging
housing price-to-income ratio
consumption rate
