摘要
公交区间车的运行会影响全程车的运行状态,合理地设置区间车发车计划可提高公交系统的运行可靠性.文中考虑区间车的运行,建立了公交的运行状态模型,采用变点理论中的累计和误差(CUSUM)法设计区间车发车策略,并以北京市973路公交车刷卡数据为基础,通过数值仿真方法,研究了不同的区间车发车策略对全程车运行可靠性以及乘客平均等待时间的影响.仿真实验结果表明:文中提出的区间车发车策略不仅能提高公交运行可靠性,也能较大程度减少乘客的平均等待时间;若区间车发车时刻设置不当,会对其他全程车的运行可靠性产生消极影响.
The operation of short-turn buses will affect the operation state of full-length buses.The reliability of bus operation system can be improved by properly designing a short-turn departure strategy.Given the operation of short-turn buses,a bus operation state model was established.And the departure strategy was designed with the cumulative sum(CUSUM)method.In addition,based on the real-time IC data of bus No.973 in Beijing,the influence of different short-turn bus departure strategies on the operation state of full-length buses and passenger's average waiting time were studied by numerical simulation method.The simulation results show that the bus departure strategy developed by this method can not only improve the bus operation reliability,but also greatly reduce the passenger's average waiting time;improper departure time arrangement have a negative impact on the operation reliability of other full-length vehicles.
作者
严海
刘润坤
YAN Hai;LIU Runkun(Key Laboratory of Advanced Public Transportation Science of the Ministry of Transport,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期25-32,43,共9页
Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51308018)
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1601300)。
关键词
交通工程
公交区间车
变点理论
运行可靠性
数值仿真
traffic engineering
short-turn buses
change point theory
reliability
data simulation
