摘要
轨道运行时会发生各类不确定性突发事件,导致交通拥堵,引发乘客恐慌,使原本的规律的客流分布产生变化,无法精准掌握客流实时动态,进一步加深事态的严重性。对城镇轨道交通提出基于时间序列的客流动态分配方法。利用时间序列理论对乘客分形规则进行分析,了解其具有的混沌不确定性特征,以反馈时延为依据,得出在突发事件下不确定性客流动态预测精准结果,最后给出基于随机均衡的客流动态分配策略,完成分配。通过仿真结果表明,所提方法对不同条件下的区域内轨道交通客流方差较小,且客流预测值与实际值较为接近,证明动态分配较为合理。
During the rail transit operation,various kinds of uncertain emergencies occur,leading to the traffic congestion and the change of passenger flow.In traditional way,the real-time dynamic passenger flow cannot be known well,which further deepens the seriousness.Therefore,a dynamic passenger flow allocation method for urban rail transit based on time series was put forward.The time series theory was used to analyze the fractal rule,so that the feature of chaotic uncertainty was understood.Based on the feedback delay,the accurate result of dynamic predic-tion of uncertain passenger flow under emergency events was obtained.Finally,the dynamic allocation strategy of pas-senger flow based on stochastic equilibrium was given.Thus,the assignment was completed.Simulation results show that the proposed method has small variance of passenger flow in rail transit under different conditions.Meanwhile,the predicted value of passenger flow is close to the actual value,so that the dynamic allocation of the proposed meth-od is more reasonable.
作者
周楠
殷守革
Zhou Nan;Yin Shou-ge(Raiiway Police College,Zhengzhou 450053,China;Shanxi University,Law School,Shanxi Taiyuan,030006,China)
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2020年第1期105-108,238,共5页
Computer Simulation
基金
公安部公安理论及软科学研究计划项目(2018LLYJTJXY045)阶段性研究成果。
关键词
时间序列
轨道交通
分形规则
动态分配
反馈时延
Time series
Rail transit
Fractal rules
Dynamic allocation
Feedback delay
