摘要
经济全球化加快背景下,我国跨境资本流动波动加大,资本快速聚集和大规模流动,对货币稳定和收支平衡产生较大影响甚至冲击。以宏观审慎管理为目标,采取总量调节原则探索我国跨境资本流动的适度区间规模,并基于直接和间接双重视角对近年来跨境资本流动管理效果作出总体评估。对于间接评估,主要借助门限误差修正模型判断跨境资本流动状态是否偏离正常均衡的运行区间,并在不同区制范围内对管理效果给予差异化评价。在总体评估和综合分析的基础上,提出进一步完善跨境资本流动宏观审慎管理的政策建议。
In the context of economic globalization,China’s cross-border capital flows have become more volatile,with the capital accumulation rapidly and large-scale flows,which has a great impact or even a shock on currency stability and balance of payments.This paper takes macro-prudential management as the goal,adopts the principle of aggregate adjustment to explore the moderate interval scale of China’s cross-border capital flows,and makes an comprehensive assessment of the effects of cross-border capital flows management in recent years,which based on the direct and indirect perspectives.Direct evaluation mainly takes the modest range of cross-border capital flows as the standard,and estimates the effect of the management.While,indirect evaluation uses the threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models to test whether cross-border capital flows deviates from the equilibrium operating interval,and to give a differential evaluation of the effectiveness of management within the scope of different regional systems.Finally,it puts forward policy recommendations for improving prudent macro management of cross-border capital flows.
作者
高秀成
庞佳璇
乔宁宁
GAO Xiu-cheng;PANG Jia-xuan;QIA Ning-ning(State Administration of Foreign Exchange Shanxi Branch,Taiyuan 030001,China;Surrey International Institute,Dongbei University of Finance&Economics,Dalian 116025,China;The People's Bank of China Taiyuan Central Sub-branch,Taiyuan 030001,China)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期67-74,共8页
On Economic Problems
关键词
宏观审慎
跨境资本流动
适度区间
prudent macro management
cross-border capital flows
moderate intervals
