摘要
为使港口集装箱吞吐量预测的误差更小,精度更高,提出运用弹性系数法、灰色模型法、三次指数平滑法的组合预测模型,预测了武汉港未来特征年的集装箱吞吐量,研究结果表明,组合模型相比单一预测方法能够降低误差、提高精度,预测结果更加理想。
In this paper,to reduce the error and improve the accuracy of port throughput forecasting,we proposed a combined forecasting model which incorporated the elastic coefficient method,the grey model method,and the cubic exponential smoothing method,used it to forecast the container throughput of Wuhan Port in the future characteristic year.The finding showed that compared to any single forecasting method,the combined model could reduce the error and improve the accuracy of port throughput forecasting,arriving at more ideal forecasting results.
作者
蒋惠园
张安顺
Jiang Huiyuan;Zhang Anshun(School of Transportation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)
出处
《物流技术》
2020年第2期44-47,140,共5页
Logistics Technology
关键词
集装箱吞吐量
武汉港
预测模型
组合预测
container throughput
Wuhan Port
forecasting model
combined forecasting
