摘要
用提高原始数据列光滑度的方法来提高灰色预测模型(GM模型)的精度。利用函数a-xm(a>1,m>1)对原始离散数据列｛x(0)(k)｝进行变换,原始数据列变成a-[x(0)(k)]m ,很大程度上提高了预测精度。将这种方法应用于港口吞吐量的预测,结果比传统灰色预测方法精度高很多,对正确做出港口发展战略、统筹安排、正确决策以及减少损失有重大意义。
The accuracy of grey forecasting model(GM)is increased by improving the smooth degree of original data sequence. Using the function a-xm (a>1,m>1), the original data sequence{x(0)(k)}is changed to a-m , and the forecasting precision is improved to a great extent. Applying this method to forecast port′s throughput, the result is much more accurate than that by traditional grey forecasting method. Thus, it is of great significance for making correct development strategy of port and cutting down the loss.
出处
《水运工程》
北大核心
2005年第1期20-23,共4页
Port & Waterway Engineering
基金
河海大学211工程建设管理科学与工程重点学科投资管理建设项目(项目编号:2110802)阶段成果之一。
关键词
灰色预测模型
原始数据列
光滑度
改进的灰色预测模型
grey forecast model
original data sequence
smooth degree
improved grey forecasting model
