摘要
本文将Stone-Geary偏好嵌套到CD-CES效用函数中,构建了基于非位似偏好下的服务贸易模型,并把总需求分解为需求结构与需求规模,从理论上推导出相对需求结构与需求规模对服务业出口的本地市场效应(home market effect,HME);同时基于2000—2014年42个国家或地区间29个服务业分行业双边贸易数据,计算发现世界各国分行业服务业需求收入弹性差异显著,呈现出明显的非位似特征,并首次从实证上验证了世界整体服务业出口存在需求结构作用的反向HME和非线性HME;并发现当相对市场规模越大时,相对需求结构的反向效应越强。分类型情形下,消费性服务业需求结构作用的反向HME及其非线性效应均高于生产性服务业,而生产性服务业需求规模作用的HME高于消费性服务业;不同类别收入水平国家之间需求结构和需求规模作用的HME差异显著。据此,扩大内需规模、优化需求结构,结合供给侧结构改革倒逼服务业创新,构建外贸增长和收入合理分配并行的激励政策体系等,对一国迈向服务业大国乃至强国具有重要的政策意义。
In recent years,global service trade has grown faster than goods trade,and has become an engine for world trade growth.According to the database of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,the average annual growth rate of service exports from emerging markets and developing countries was 8.50%from 1980 to 2017,higher than that of developed countries during the same period(6.87%).The share of developing countries in world service export has increased from 21.03%to 31.80%.Why did this happen?Krugman ascribed this result to home-market effects(HMEs);that is,a larger scale of domestic demand brings a larger scale of exports.However,developed countries tend to have a larger domestic demand scale for services but slower export growth in the real world.We believe that home-market effect theory tends only to consider the demand scale,ignoring the difference in demand structure.That is,consumers preferences are heterogeneous and the income elasticities for different products are different;these are denoted non-homothetic preferences.Under non-homothetic preferences,the demand structure will affect service exports in addition to the demand scale,and there may be anti-HMEs resulting from demand structure.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to examine the home-market effects of service exports and their possible non-linear effects from the perspective of demand structure.In this study,we construct a service trade model with non-homothetic preferences by incorporating the Stone-Geary preferences into the CD-CES utility function.We decompose the total demand into demand scale and demand structure to theoretically deduce the HMEs of demand scale and demand structure on service exports.In the empirical analysis,we first apply Caron et al.s(2014)method and combine data from the world input-output table and the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information(CEPII)database from 2000 to 2014 to calculate the income elasticities for 29 service industries in 42 countries or regi
作者
李敬子
陈强远
钱学锋
LI Jingzi;CHEN Qiangyuan;QIAN Xuefeng(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;National Academy of Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期133-147,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71603285、71703170、71603160)
国家社会科学重大专项课题(18VSJ046)的资助
关键词
非位似偏好
非线性本地市场效应
需求结构
服务贸易出口
Non-homothetic Preferences
Non-linear Home-market Effects
Demand Structure
Service Exports
