摘要
运用水生态足迹模型分析了河南省水生态足迹动态变化,结合拓展的Kaya恒等式和LMDI分解法,分析了河南省水生态足迹的驱动效应。结果表明:(1)河南省水生态足迹由2011年的2.954×10^8hm^2持续减少到2015年的2.617×10^8hm^2,第一、第二和第三产业的年均值约占总量的45%、11%和44%,且第一产业所占比重基本稳定,第二产业呈下降趋势,第三产业有所上升。(2)水生态承载力年均0.142×10^8hm^2且相对稳定,水生态赤字年均2.649×10^8hm^2且持续减少,表明河南省水环境压力有所缓解,但水生态安全危机仍然严峻。(3)人口和经济发展是河南省水生态足迹的正向驱动因素,人口驱动效应相对恒定且不断增强,经济发展是主要的增量因子且驱动效应逐渐减弱。(4)以2014年为分界点,河南省产业结构对于水生态足迹驱动效应实现了由正向负的转变,但受转变时间和产业比重变化的影响,整体上呈弱正向驱动但接近于零。(5)技术进步是河南省水生态足迹减少的首要驱动因素,三大产业技术进步驱动效应的年均值均呈负向驱动,表明技术进步有效抑制了水生态足迹增长,其中第三产业技术进步的减量效应最高。
This paper applied the water ecological footprint model to analyze the dynamic changes of water ecological footprint in Henan Province,and analyzed its driving effects by combining the extended Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition method.The results are as follows:(1)The water ecological footprint has been continuously reduced from 2.954×10^8 hm^2 in 2011 to 1.461×10^8 hm^2 in 2016.The annual mean values of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries account for 45%、11%and 44%respectively.Besides,the proportion of the primary industry is basically stable,and the the proportion of the secondary industry shows a decreasing trend while the tertiary industry shows an increasing trend.(2)The water ecological capacity is relatively stable,and the annual water ecological deficit is consistently decreasing,which indicates that the pressure of water environment has been relieved,but the crisis of water ecological security is still severe.(3)The positive driving factors are population and economic development.The population driving effect is relatively constant and increasing while the economic development is the main incremental factor and its driving effect is gradually being weakened.(4)Taking 2014 as the boundary point,the industrial structure has realized the change from positive to negative for the water ecological footprint driving effect.However,it is affected by the change of transition time and industrial proportion,although the whole is weakly positive drive,it is close to zero.(5)Technological progress is the main driving factor for the reduction of water ecological footprint.The annual mean value of the driving effect of technological progress in three industries is negative,and it shows that technological progress has effectively restrained the ecological footprint of water,in which the tertiary industry has the highest reduction effect in technological progress.
作者
焦士兴
王安周
陈林芳
张崇崇
尹义星
张馨歆
赵荣钦
JIAO Shixing;WANG Anzhou;CHEN Linfang;ZHANG Chongchong;YIN Yixing;ZHANG Xinxin;ZHAO Rongqin(College of Resources&Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang 455002,China;Luoyang No.19 Middle School,Luoyang 471000,China;College of Hydrometeorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Surveying and Geo-informatics,North China University of Water Resource and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期91-96,共6页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(19A17001)
河南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S201910479025)
安阳师范学院大学生创新基金项目(ASCX/2019-Z118)
