摘要
风险评估对社区入室盗窃案件的防控具有参考意义。基于文献调研和实地考察,结合社区警务的实际工作经验,构建了社区入室盗窃风险评估指标体系,并综合运用模糊层次分析法、德尔菲法、D-S证据理论和模糊综合评价法实现了定量计算。以某大型城市13个典型社区为例,对提出的风险评估方法进行了验证,并与实际入室盗窃案件数据进行了对比。结果表明,社区警务室的建设和运行对入室盗窃风险影响最大,其次为小区关键场所设施安全状况和小区空间家居状况;模糊综合评价结果与实际入室盗窃发案情况基本一致。所提出的方法预期可以为社区入室盗窃犯罪的预防提供决策依据。
Risk assessment is of reference to the prevention and controlling of burglary crimes in the community.With the literature and on-the-spot investigations,and combined with the experiences of community policing,this paper constructs a risk assessment indicators system of burglary in the community,and realizes the quantitative calculation for the burglary risk by using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process,Delphi,Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method.Taking 13 typical communities in a large city as examples,the proposed risk assessment method is validated by real burglary case data.The results show that the construction and operation of community police office has the greatest impact on the risk of burglary,followed by the security of key facilities and the status of residential space and home;The results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are basically consistent with the real situation of burglary.The method proposed in this paper is expected to provide a decision-making basis for the prevention of burglary in the community.
作者
李逸佳
Li Yijia(School of Information Technology and Network Security,People′s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《信息技术与网络安全》
2020年第2期75-80,共6页
Information Technology and Network Security
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC0809702)
国家自然科学基金(71704183)
公安部科技强警基础工作专项(2018GABJC01)
关键词
风险评估
指标体系
模糊层次分析法
D-S证据理论
模糊综合评价
risk assessment
indicator system
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
D-S evidence theory
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
