摘要
为研究经济发展与交通基础设施建设二者间的非线性关系,结合"一带一路"沿线我国西北五省的情况,通过构建阈值回归模型来具体分析。实证结果表明,我国西北地区经济发展与交通基础设施建设之间存在两阶段阈值协整,且在不同阶段反映系数不同,即在2011年以前,交通基础设施建设对经济发展的反映系数为0.7005,2011年以后逐渐增强,为1.8126;而经济发展对交通基础设施的影响作用呈现出线性关系,一直较为稳定,反映系数为0.7106。二者间影响作用均为正,且都存在3年的滞后效应。
In order to further study the nonlinear relationship between the two economic development and transportation infrastructure construction, combined with the situation of five provinces in Northwest China along the "Belt and Road", we build a threshold regression model to analyze it concretely. The empirical results show that there are two stages of threshold cointegration between economic development and transportation infrastructure construction in Northwest China, and the response coefficients are different in different stages. That is, before 2011, theresponse coefficient of transportation infrastructure construction to economic development is 0.7005, and after 2011, it gradually strengthens to 1.8126. The impact of transport infrastructure shows a linear relationship, which has been relatively stable, with a reflection coefficient of 0.7106. The effect between them is positive, and there is a three-year lag effect.
作者
白丽飞
李艳佳
张佳强
BAI Lifei;LI Yanjia;ZHANG Jiaqiang(School of Economics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《综合运输》
2019年第12期34-39,共6页
China Transportation Review
基金
丝绸之路经济带沿线国家产业合作潜力研究（15ZUJBWTD004）
“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”项目（16LZUJBWZX007）
关键词
经济
交通基础设施
“一带一路”
非线性
阈值回归模型
Economy
Transportation infrastructure
The "Belt and Road"
Nonlinearity
Threshold regression model
