摘要
采用灰色预测方法对黑龙江森工林区2018—2027年林业三次产业产值进行预测,并在此基础上利用动态偏离-份额分析方法对此阶段黑龙江森工林区的林业优势产业进行选择。结果表明:2019年黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构将演变为“三、一、二”模式;林业第一产业中的林木育种和育苗、经济林产品的种植和采集业可作为优势产业进行重点发展和管理。因此,提出优化黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构的相关建议:继续巩固发展林木育种和育苗、经济林产品的种植和采集这两个优势产业;推动加工制造业向深加工、精加工的方向转变;加强林业旅游与休闲服务业的竞争力。
⑴Background——The implementation of the natural forest protection project and the policy of logging ban has gotten the forest region dominated by the timber economy into trouble.Adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure has become an extremely urgent matter.⑵Methods——Based on the grey forecast model,the paper forecasts the output value of forestry three industries and secondary industries,and obtains the evolution trend of forestry industrial structure.Based on the shift share analysis method,the change of the output value of forestry industry is decomposed into the industrial structure deviation component and the competitiveness deviation component.According to the calculation results,superior industries are selected.⑶Results——The output value prediction equation of forestry tree industries and its secondary industries is obtained.The chart of change trend of forestry industrial structure in Heilongjiang Forest-industry Region is drawn,which conforms to the evolution law of industrial structure.The evolution of forestry industrial structure can be divided into four stages.The first stage(2003-2008)is the“One-Two-Three”mode.The proportion of the primary industry is significantly higher than that of the secondary industry,and the proportion of the tertiary industry is lower.The second stage(2009-2010)is the“Two-One-Three”mode.The third stage(2011-2015)is the“One-Two-Three”mode.The fourth stage(2016-2017)is the“One-Three-Two”mode.It is predicted that the forestry industrial structure in 2008 will still be the“One-Three-Two”mode,and the forestry industrial structure will evolve in 2019.The primary industry of forestry in Heilongjiang Province has a stronger competitive advantage compared with the national average.Forest breeding,seedling raising and the cultivation and collection of economic forest products have obvious comprehensive advantages.The abundant natural resources in the state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang Province also improve the competitiveness of the p
作者
李微
石昀灵
LI Wei;SHI Yunling(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040 China)
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2019年第6期615-620,共6页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572018BM03)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(16GLB07)
关键词
森工林区
产业结构
灰色预测
偏离-份额法
forest industry region
industrial structure
grey prediction
shift share method
