摘要
集装箱运输方式是决定企业物流成本和运输效率的重要指标之一。明确海运或铁路等运输方式各自的选择偏好,对降低企业运输成本,做出合理决策具有重要的现实意义。基于此,文章综合马六甲东海岸铁路工程建设,选择上海港至瓜达尔港实际运输线路,提出并构建海运经新加坡中转和途经马来西亚东海岸铁路运输两种模式下的Logit选择模型,计算两种运输方式下的概率分布。此外,对集装箱船舶尺度因素进行了灵敏度分析。结果表明,当物流企业倾向于时间成本最小时,铁路中转运输概率较大;当侧重经济成本时,海运中转概率较大。与此同时,集装箱船舶尺度的变化,对运输方式的偏好影响较大。
The container transportation mode is an important indicator that determines the logistics cost and transportation efficiency of the transportation companies. It is of great practical significance to clarify the respective choice preferences of shipping or railway transfer methods,and to reduce the transportation cost of enterprises and make rational decisions. Based on these key problems,the probability distribution of the actual transportation route from Shanghai Port to Gwadar Port is discussed in this paper,considering the construction of the Malacca East Coast Railway project,and a Logit model for seaborne transit through Singapore and transit through Malaysia East Coast Railway is proposed. In addition,a sensitivity analysis is performed on the scale factors of container ships. The results show that when logistics companies tend to have the lowest time cost,the probability of railway transit transportation is greater;when focusing on economic costs,the probability of seaborne transit is greater. At the same time,the changes in the scale of container ships have a greater impact on the preference of transport modes.
出处
《上海汽车》
2019年第12期20-25,共6页
Shanghai Auto
