摘要
本研究基于可持续生计分析框架,以内蒙古自治区五大草原类型15个旗(县)848户牧户的调研数据为分析样本,通过熵值法评估不同类型生计资本的权重,然后建立二元Logit回归模型定量分析牧民生计资本与旱灾应对策略之间的关系。结果表明:1)内蒙古自治区50.12%的牧户认为过去5年发生了旱灾,并有47.52%的牧户采取旱灾应对策略。2)牧民应对旱灾策略主要为购买草料、出售家畜和转场放牧,占比分别为33.02%、15.80%和10.38%。3)牧户的生计资本存量对其采取的旱灾应对措施购买草料、出售家畜、走场放牧、寄养家畜、外出打工存在显著影响。内蒙古自治区牧民由于生计资本存量较低,应对旱灾风险的策略较少,因此,应通过开展技术培训,发展多元化信贷供给模式,建立专业化牧民协会等措施增强牧民旱灾抵御能力。
Based on the framework of sustainable livelihood analysis,this study used survey data from 848 herdsmen in 15 banners(counties)in 5 grassland types in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Using this sample,we evaluated the weight of different types of livelihood capital using the entropy method and established a binary logit regression model to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the livelihood capital and drought response strategies.The results showed that:1)50.12%of herdsmen in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region think that there has been drought in the past 5 years,and 47.52%of herdsmen adopted drought response strategies;2)The strategies of herdsmen to deal with the drought were mainly to buy forage,sell livestock,and move to pasture,accounting for 33.02%,15.80%,and 10.38%,respectively;and 3)The livelihood capital stock of herdsmen had a significant effect on the measures they took to deal with the drought,such as purchasing forage,selling livestock,grazing on the farm,fostering livestock,and going out to work.Because of the low stock of livelihood capital,the herdsmen in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region have few strategies for dealing with the risk of drought.Therefore,we should strengthen herdsmen's ability to resist drought by conducting technical training,developing diversified credit supply modes,and establishing a professional herdsmen's association.
作者
丁文强
侯向阳
董海宾
李西良
尹燕亭
刘慧慧
DING Wenqiang;HOU Xiangyang;DONG Haibin;LI Xiliang;YIN Yanting;LIU Huihui(Institute of Grassland Research of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Hohhot 010010,Inner Mongolia,China;College of Pastoral Agricultural Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China)
出处
《草业科学》
CAS
CSCD
2019年第12期3191-3202,共12页
Pratacultural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71774162)
国家林草软科学专项(2019131042)
关键词
二元Logit回归模型
旱灾
应对策略
可持续生计资本
Binary Logit regression model
drought
response strategies
sustainable livelihood capital
