摘要
利用2012-2018年鸭梨花芽发育实景观测照片,精准判定每个鸭梨花芽发育物候期节点发生时间,以此为依据统计鸭梨花芽每个发育物候期的气象要素数据,以物候期为单位分析气象影响因子对花芽发育过程的影响。研究表明:温度在鸭梨花芽发育各阶段起主导作用,筛选出鸭梨花芽萌发到始花、开绽到始花、露蕾到始花3个时段日平均气温≥0℃活动积温和≥3℃有效积温,作为制作鸭梨始花期预报的积温指标计算鸭梨开花日期,得到"积温对比预报法";经2016-2018年应用检验:预报时效10~12d时预报结果与鸭梨开花实况误差在1~2d以内,预报时效7d时预报结果与鸭梨开花实况完全吻合。本研究克服了传统植物花期预报研究因花前物候资料匮乏、不能进行花前发育期分析的缺陷,并把"中长期天气预报产品"引入了花期预报方法的使用,为植物花期预报研究方法提供了新思路。
The actual observation photos of Yali pear flower bud development from 2012 to 2018 are used to accurately determine the occurrence time of each node of Yali pear flower bud development phenological period.Based on this data,the meteorological factors in each phenological phase in Yali pear bud development are studied.The effects of meteorological influencing factors on flower bud development are analyzed according to the phenological phases.The result shows that the temperature plays a leading role in the development of the flower buds of Yali pear,and three prediction indexes,i.e.,the average daily temperature,≥0°C active accumulated temperature,and≥3°C effective accumulation temperature in the periods from germination to first flowering,sprouting to first flowering,squaring to first flowering,are selected to determine the Yali pear flowering dates.According to the application test from 2016 to 2018,the prediction error between the predicted results and the actual flowering of Yali pear is within 1 to 2 days when the prediction time is 10 to 12 days,and the predicted results are completely consistent with the actual flowering of Yali pear when the prediction time is 7 days.This study overcomes the shortcomings of traditional plant flowering forecasting,such as the lack of phenological data before flowering and the inability of the pre-flowering period analysis,and introduces the medium-and long-term weather forecasting products into flowering forecasting,which provides a new idea for flowering forecasting.
作者
赵洪杰
闫景东
陈广瑞
寇春伟
孟杰
马丽
Zhao Hongjie;Yan Jingdong;Chen Guangrui;Kou Chunwei;Meng Jie;Ma Li(Guanxian Meteorological Service,Shangdong,Liaocheng 252500)
出处
《气象科技》
2019年第5期872-878,共7页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
聊城市气象局自立科研项目“冠县鸭梨花芽发育气象影响因子与花期预报技术研究”(2016lcqx01)资助
关键词
鸭梨
始花期预报
积温
物候期
Yali pear
first flowering date prediction
accumulated temperature
phenological phase