摘要
全球气候变化危及当代人及子孙后代的福祉,严重制约人类的可持续发展。越来越多研究表明,仅靠减缓和适应气候变化难以实现《巴黎协定》气候目标,地球工程人工干预气候系统是实现1.5℃温控目标难以避免的无奈选择。地球工程的引入及其特殊经济学属性也为气候变化经济学的研究提出了新的研究课题。本文立足气候变化经济学视角,就地球工程的概念、地球工程作为应对气候变化措施的定位与作用、地球工程的经济学属性、经济评估等问题进行分析。作者认为,应对气候变化的讨论,不能回避地球工程,但要科学认知和区别对待不同类型的地球工程技术;不同地球工程技术作为应对气候变化手段的作用不同,但相较于减缓手段来说都具有末端治理属性,不仅不能从根本上改善人类福祉,还可能给整个地球生态系统引入新的风险;太阳地球工程与大规模的生物能源碳捕集与封存(BECCS)的外部影响具有潜在不确定性,作为全球公共物品的成本收益难以简单、直接权衡,盲目实施会加剧区域和代际之间的不公平;太阳地球工程潜在影响的巨大溢出效应、风险、不确定性和区域非对称性是寻求最优气候政策组合的关键变量,给全球气候治理的国家间博弈增加了新的变数。中国要在全球生态文明建设中发挥重要参与者、贡献者和引领者的作用,必须区别对待CDR和SRM不同类别的地球工程,加紧研发关键技术;将地球工程置于可持续发展大框架下,积极开展地球工程的综合影响评估和国际治理的专题研究,精心部署地球工程的发展战略;中国作为2020年生物多样性大会的主办国,应谨慎应对可能出现的地球工程治理议题,寻求国际共识,积极引领各国参与构建公平有效的地球工程治理机制。
Global climate change threatens the well-being of present and future generations and seriously restricts the sustainable development of mankind.More and more studies have shown that it is difficult to achieve the Paris Agreement climate goal by simply mitigating and adapting.The use of geoengineering for artificial intervention in the climate system is an alternative choice to achieve 1.5°C temperature control target.The introduction of geoengineering and its special economic properties present new research topics for the study of climate-change economics.Based on the perspective of climate-change economics,this paper analyzes the concept of geoengineering,the position and role of geoengineering as a measure to deal with climate change,the economic attributes and economic evaluation of geoengineering.The author argues that the discussion of climate change cannot avoid geoengineering,but different types of geoengineering technologies must be scientifically recognized and treated.Different geoengineering techniques have different roles as a means of coping with climate change.Compared with mitigation,geoengineering has terminal management attributes,which can not only fundamentally improve human well-being,but also introduce new risks to the entire earth ecosystem.The external influences of solar geoengineering and large-scale bioenergy carbon capture and storage have potential uncertainties.As global public goods,its cost-benefit is difficult to make simple and direct trade-offs,so blind implementation of geoengineering will aggravate regional and intergenerational inequities.The huge spillover effect,risk,uncertainty and regional asymmetry of the potential impacts of solar geoengineering are key variables in searching for optimal climate policy combination,adding new uncertainty to the inter-country game of global climate governance.In order to play an important role as a participant,a contributor and a leader in the construction of global ecological civilization,China must differentiate between CDR and SRM,and
作者
沈维萍
陈迎
SHEN Wei-ping;CHEN Ying(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(Graduate School),Beijing 102488,China;Institute for Urban and Environment Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第10期90-98,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家重大科学研究计划(973)项目“地球工程的综合影响评价和国际治理研究”(批准号:2015CB953603)
第四次气候变化国家评估报告:减缓气候变化、中国社会科学院登峰计划“气候变化经济学优势学科”项目(批准号:2017CASS03)
关键词
地球工程
气候变化经济学
减缓
适应
全球气候治理
geoengineering
climate-change economics
mitigation
adaptation
global climate governance
