摘要
为研究自然和技术灾害(NaTech)事件中多米诺效应对危化品储罐区造成的严重影响,针对自然灾害导致罐区多米诺效应形成机制和演化规律进行分析,得到NaTech事件(包含多米诺效应)具有阶段性、时间性、物质能量性和严重性等特性。分析自然灾害引发罐区多米诺效应的演化过程并运用动态贝叶斯方法与图示评审技术(GERT)网络对演化场景进行建模,最后利用实例分析自然灾害中多米诺效应随时间动态变化。研究表明:当自然灾害发生时,事故上升概率增大且随灾害持续时间延长而增加;安全装置的失效率随着NaTech事件的发生而增加,但随时间延长的变化相对较小,故可选用不同的安全装置来避免自然灾害引发罐体发生上升事故;缩短NaTech事件中灾害延续时间,即采取切断储罐与储罐之间的关联来降低事故上升概率。
In order to study the serious effect of domino effect on hazardous chemicals storage tank area in natural and technological disasters(NaTech)event,the formation mechanism and evolution rule of domino effect in tank area caused by natural disaster were analyzed for the multiple stages and differences in the duration of action of the NaTech event(including domino effect)and the conversion of energy during the accident and the consequences of serious accidents.The evolution process of the domino effect caused by natural disasters in the tank area and the evolving scene were simulated with the dynamic Bayesian method and the graphical evaluation review technique(GERT)network.The dynamic changes of the domino effect over time in natural disasters concluded that when a natural disaster occurred,the probability of accident evolution increased with the duration of the disaster;the failure rate of safety devices increased as the NaTech event occurred,but the change with time was relatively small.Therefore,different safety devices and breaking the relevance of tanks could be used to avoid the occurrence of domino accidents in the tank caused by natural disasters.
作者
华敏
蒋代
潘旭海
蒋军成
HUA Min;JIANG Dai;PAN Xuhai;JIANG Juncheng(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211800,China)
出处
《南京工业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第5期561-569,共9页
Journal of Nanjing Tech University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0801500,2016YFC0800100)
