摘要
将贝叶斯理论引入油库池火灾多米诺效应分析中,建立油库池火灾多米诺效应的贝叶斯模型并给出建模的基本步骤,推理得出油库池火灾多米诺效应的事故场景,提出基于池火灾多米诺效应的贝叶斯网络推理原则,根据后验概率性质制定最有效的控制方案。结合具体案例,通过对所有多米诺事故场景后验概率的计算,得出具有最大后验概率(3.72×10-5)的事故链,进而将此条事故链中贡献率最大(6.17×10-3)的节点确定为该池火灾多米诺效应的最佳控制点,并结合该事故链的能量传递顺序提出控制措施。
The present paper is dedicated to a study of the pool fire Domino effect in fuel tank district based on Bayes probability theory. In order to prevent the pool fire Domino effect, we have attempted to bring the Bayes theory into the analysis of the effect in hoping to quantify the probability of such a kind of Domino effect. Forthis purpose, we have established a novel Bayes model of pool fire Domino effect in fuel tank district with the basic performance steps proposed. First of all, we have chosen the first accident as the parent node of the Bayes net and then analyzed the radiation path of the pool fire Domino effect so as to confirm all the other accidents of the pool fire Domino effect. Having performed the above 3 steps of Bayes net reasoning principle, itwould be easierto accomplish Bayes net chart according to all the different final accidents. Besides, step （5） should be the fulfillment of the condition probability table, inwhich the prior probabilities can be worked out with the adoption of equipment damage probability model. Based on the fulfillment of the prior probabil-i ties, we have worked out all the posterior probabilities of all the acc-i dent scenarios with the biggest posterior probability ascertained. The last step is to control the measuring institution on the basis of reassuring the best control point to the accident and the logic features of the accident links. Combined with a typical example, we have confirmed the posterior probability that perpetrates the biggest contribution to the pool fire Domino effect through the application of Bayes model in fuel tank district. And, consequently, we have managed to improve the control measure in accordance with the energy transfer sequence of the relative accident links.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期239-242,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
关键词
安全科学技术基础学科
油库池火灾
多米诺效应
贝叶斯
先验概率
后验概率
basic disciplines of safety science and technology
pool fire in fuel tank district
Domino effect
Bayes
prior probability
posterior probability
