摘要
首先比较2001—2011年经合组织(OECD)34个国家中的21个高收入国家与我国的年度直接融资占比数据,其次分析了2014—2017年我国东、中、西部地区的季度直接融资占比的相关数据,发现我国与高收入国家之间以及国内各区域之间均存在差异性。最后构建模型实证分析我国直接融资占比变动对实体经济的影响以及直接融资占比的合理区间。研究表明:95%的高收入国家与跨越中等收入陷阱国家的直接融资占比始终维持在40%~65%,而我国始终维持在20%以下,东、中、西部亦是如此;我国直接融资的发展缓慢,在整个社会融资结构中的占比小,对实体经济的增长具有负效应,且负效应随着直接融资占比的扩大呈现逐渐减小的趋势,当直接融资占比上升到19.9%这一临界值时负效应接近于0,并有望在超过临界值后对实体经济增长产生正效应。
The article first compares the annual direct financing ratio data of 21 high-income countries in 34 countries of the OECD in 2001—2011,and then analyzes the eastern,central and western regions of China from 2014 to 2017.The relevant data on the proportion of quarterly direct financing in the region found that there are differences between China and high-income countries and between regions in China.Finally,the construction model empirically analyzes the impact of changes in the proportion of direct financing in China on the real economy and the reasonable range of direct financing.The research shows that the proportion of direct financing in 95%of high-income countries and countries with middle-income traps has remained at 40%~65%,while China has remained below 20%,as well as in the eastern,central and western regions;The development of direct financing in China is slow,and the proportion of the whole social financing structure is small,which has a negative effect on the growth of the real economy,and the negative effect tends to decrease with the expansion of the proportion of direct financing,when direct financing accounts for the negative effect is close to zero when it rises to the critical value of 19.9%,and it is expected to have a positive effect on real economic growth after exceeding the critical value.
作者
顾晓安
荣露
GU Xiao-an;RONG Lu(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)
出处
《科技与管理》
2019年第4期76-83,共8页
Science-Technology and Management
基金
2018年度上海理工大学省部级科技奖励培育项目
关键词
直接融资占比
高收入国家
实体经济增长
direct financing ratio
high-incone cantries
real economic grouth
