中美农业双边贸易分解和潜力分析被引量：6

Decomposition and Potential Analysis of the Bilateral Agriculture Trade between China and America

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摘要本文利用WWZ模型及扩展引力模型,对2000-2014年中美农业双边贸易进行分解和潜力分析。研究表明:(1)总值贸易统计的中美农业双边贸易明显高于增加值贸易统计,表明中美农业双边贸易中隐含着大量的重复计算或国外价值成分。(2)中国农业出口贸易中以中间产品出口国内增加值占比低于美国,而以最终品出口国内增加值占比却高于美国,表明中国农业出口贸易主要是用于最终需求。(3)中国农业出口贸易中返回增加值占比明显偏低,表明中国农业在全球价值链中位于相对下游位置,少有出口增加值返回。(4)中国农业出口贸易中国外增加值占比低于美国,表明中国农业参与全球价值链的程度相对较低。(5)中美农业双边贸易中纯重复计算部分占比上升态势明显,意味着中美农业参与全球价值链环节都在不断增加。(6)经济规模、要素禀赋、共同区域贸易组织等促进双边贸易,而经济体间地理距离、全球金融危机等抑制双边贸易。(7)中美农业双边贸易同属于"潜力开拓型",双边贸易仍具较大的发展潜力和开拓空间。 Adopting the WWZ model and Gravity model,bilateral agriculture trade between China and America is decomposed during 2000-2014 based on perspective of the global value chains( GVC).Our studies indicate the following:( 1) Total bilateral agriculture trade between China and America,which contains double counted terms( PDC) or Foreign value-added( FVA),is significantly higher than value added of trade.( 2) DVA in intermediate exports share in exports of China ’s agriculture is lower than American,while DVA in final exports share in exports of China’s agriculture is higher than American,it means that exports of China’s agricultural is mainly for the final demand.( 3) That returned domestic valueadded( RDV) share in exports of China ’s agricultural is lower than American means that China ’s agricultural is in the downstream of GVC.( 4) That FVA share in Exports of China’s agriculture is lower than American means that participation in GVC of China’s agricultural is lower.( 5) PDC share in exports between China and America show an upward trend,it means that GVCs of China and American are getting longer.( 6) Economic scale,factor endowments and common regional trade organizations promote bilateral trade,while distance between economies and global financial crisis inhibit bilateral trade.( 7) The bilateral agriculture trade between China and America still has huge potential and expansion prospect.

作者尹伟华 YIN Wei-hua(Economic Forecasting Department,State Information Center,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区国家信息中心经济预测部

出处《上海经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2019年第8期118-128,共11页 Shanghai Journal of Economics

基金国家重点研发计划项目“国家安全风险管理关键技术研究与应用”(项目编号:2018YFC0806900) 国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下的中国进出口贸易分解及对经济发展的影响研究(项目编号:15CTJ002)”

关键词农业贸易全球价值链增加值贸易引力模型贸易潜力 Agricultural Trade Global Value Chain Value-Added Trade Gravity Model Potential in Trade

分类号 F752 [经济管理—国际贸易]