摘要
基于NCEP/NCAR 1948—2017年逐日平均气温资料,利用百分位阈值法确定中亚地区极端高温事件的阈值,进而分析该地区近70a极端高温事件强度、频次时空分布特征。结果表明:中亚地区暖季平均气温的空间分布受地形影响显著,从西南向东北逐渐降低。极端高温事件的强度和频次在1967年前后发生年代际转折,其中强度在转折后要显著高于转折前,频次在转折前呈现负趋势、转折后转变为正趋势。极端高温事件发生的区域也存在显著的年代际变化特征。极端高温事件强度趋势增加最显著的地区位于乌兹别克斯坦西部,负趋势最显著的区域位于中国南疆;频次趋势增加最显著区域位于哈萨克斯坦西部的乌拉尔地区,负趋势显著区域则位于帕米尔高原。
Based on the daily mean air temperature data of NCEP/NCAR during 1948-2017,the extreme high temperature events in Central Asia were determined by percentile threshold method,then the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of intensity and frequency of extreme high temperature events over the past 70 years were analyzed.The results show that the spatial distribution of mean temperature in warm season in Central Asia was significantly affected by topography,and it gradually decreased from southwest to northeast.The intensity and frequency of extreme high temperature events occurred interdecadal transition in 1967.The intensity after transition was significantly higher than that before the transition.The frequency showed a negative trend before 1967 and a positive trend after that.The areas of extreme high temperature events also occurred interdecadal transition.According to the trend distribution of intensity,the region with the most significant increase was located in the west of Uzbekistan,and the region with the most significant negative trend was located in the southern Xinjiang of China.While the most significant increase in frequency trend was in Ural region of western Kazakhstan,and the negative trend was in Pamir Plateau.
作者
金红梅
颜鹏程
柏庆顺
周甘霖
段海霞
JIN Hongmei;YAN Pengcheng;BAI Qinshun;ZHOU Ganlin;DUAN Haixia(Central-Asia Research Center of Atmospheric Science,Urumqi 830002,China;Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China;School of Physical Science and Technology,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225002,Jiangsu,China;Gansu Meteorological Information and Technical Equip Safeguard Center,Lanzhou 730020,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2019年第4期550-556,共7页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201802)
甘肃省气象局西北区域数值预报创新团队(GSQXCXTD-2017-02)
干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM201715,IAM201604)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001)共同资助
关键词
极端高温事件
中亚地区
阈值
时空分布
extreme high temperature events
Central Asia
threshold
spatial and temporal distribution
