摘要
对27至31届奥运会男子径赛获奖牌运动员年龄进行统计,讨论其分布特征,并运用灰色关联、灰色聚类、GM(1,1)模型等方法对未来的变化趋势进行预测.研究表明:男子径赛各项目对年龄的敏感度不同,金牌运动员和夺牌运动员在历届的年龄变化程度存在差异;预测方面:该项目运动员的竞技生涯周期将变宽,顶尖运动员“大龄化”趋势凸显,最佳夺牌年龄段为[26.5,26.9],较之前略有右移.
The age of medal-winning athletes in the 27 th to 31 th Olympic Games was counted,and their distribution characteristics were discussed.The future trend was predicted by use of grey correlation,grey clustering and GM(1,1)model,which is of referential significance for the training and competition arrangement of domestic men’s track athletes.The research finds that the sensitivity of men’s track events are different in terms of the athlete’s age,and there are differences in the degree of age change among gold medalists and medal winners in the four Olympic Games.As for the predicative power:the competitive career cycle of athletes in this event will be wider;the trend of“older”athletes becoming to top medalists is obvious,and the best age of winning medals is[26.5,26.9],slightly shifting towards the right than before.
作者
颜善青
赵一平
YAN Shanqing;ZHAO Yiping(College of Physical Education,Huaibei Normal University,Huaibei,Anhui 235000,China)
出处
《内江师范学院学报》
2019年第8期106-111,共6页
Journal of Neijiang Normal University
基金
安徽省教育厅质量工程重大项目：立德树人视角下高校足球学院人才联合培养模式的研究(2017jyxm0209)
关键词
男子径赛
年龄
分布
灰色
预测
men’s track events
age
distribution
grey
prediction
