摘要
为研究建设项目施工中各风险因素之间的错综复杂关系,采取科学的风险控制策略降低建设项目施工安全风险,通过在分析装配式建筑施工安全风险因素的基础上,利用马尔科夫链和贝叶斯网络相结合的方法对风险因素的发生概率进行估算,以条件概率描述各风险因素之间的相关性,并构建安全风险损失-控制投入双目标优化模型,设计相应的算法并运用R语言编程求解。结果表明考虑风险相关性的优化模型,结合实际情况给出合理的配置策略,对提高装配式建筑施工安全风险决策有良好推进作用。
In order to study the intricate relationship between various risk factors in the construction of construction projects,a scientific risk control strategy was adopted to reduce the construction safety risks of construction projects.Markov chain and Bayesian network were utilized on the basis of analyzing the safety risk factors of prefabricated building construction.The conditional probability was used to describe the correlation between various risk factors,and the safety risk loss-control input double objective optimization model was constructed.The corresponding algorithm was designed and solved by R language programming.The results show that the optimization model considering risk correlation,combined with the actual situation to give a reasonable allocation strategy,has a good role in promoting the decision-making of building construction safety risk.
作者
吴溪
常春光
严昕
WU Xi;CHANG Chun-guang;YAN Xin(School of Management,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China;School of Statistics and Management,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2019年第27期304-310,共7页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(51678375)
辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2015020603)资助
关键词
装配式建筑
施工安全
贝叶斯网络
马尔科夫链
风险相关性
粒子群算法
prefabricated building
construction safety
Bayesian network
Markov chain
risk correlation
particle swarm optimization
