摘要
本文将生产性和非生产性资产泡沫同时纳入Tirole(1985)和Olivier(2000)的连续时间世代交叠模型,发现两类泡沫的相对比重影响实体经济增长。在此基础上收集了历年来全国31个省区和直辖市所有证券营业部的股票交易额,构建出省际股市过度投机指标,然后考察资金进入股市是否支持实体经济发展,发现在股市投机性高的省区,当地非上市企业的融资约束加大、生产要素投入减少且产出和生产率均下降。另外,股市投机活动对中小企业的负面影响显著高于大型企业,对内资企业的负面影响也显著高于外资企业。结果表明,股市过度投机造成非上市企业,特别是中小企业的融资机会和生产能力下降,进而威胁实体经济的健康发展。本文据此提出了相应的政策建议。
It is well-known that the development of the Chinese stock markets has deviated from the growth of the real economy over a sustained period. In particular, the cumulative growth rates of the nominal GDP and the real economy reached 797.97% and 744.91% between 2000 and 2018, respectively, while the cumulative growth rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index was merely 20.3%, indicating that the stock markets do not accurately reflect the growth of the Chinese economy. Although the real GDP of China now exceeds RMB90 trillion, the daily transaction volumes in the stock markets usually range between several hundred billion and over a trillion renminbi. This raises the question of whether speculative activities in the Chinese stock markets can help channel sufficient investment capital to fulfil the financing needs of industrial enterprises and whether this speculation increases or decreases the chances of survival of industrial enterprises. This paper attempts to address these important questions both theoretically and empirically. Under the assumption that bubbles based on productive and non-productive assets can coexist in financial markets, this paper extends the continuous time overlapping generation model of Tirole (1985) and Olivier (2000) to a more general setting. We find that the relative weight of productive versus non-productive asset bubbles affects the real economy. If bubbles based on productive assets command higher weight, then speculation in the capital markets will induce economic growth. However, if non-productive asset bubbles dominate, then speculation in the capital markets will hurt economic growth. Based on the aforementioned theoretical analysis, this paper uses data on China's industrial enterprises compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics to examine whether and to what extent stock market speculation diverted investment capital out of the real economy between 1998 and 2013. We first aggregate the data on the annual volume of stock transactions for all securities companies an
作者
苏冬蔚
毛建辉
SU Dongwei;MAO Jianhui(Department of Finance and Institute of Financial Research,Jinan University;College of Accounting,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第10期152-166,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金(71673110、71972087)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(19JNLH05)的研究资助
关键词
股市过度投机
实体经济
融资约束
投入产出
非上市工业企业
Stock Market Overspeculation
Real Economy
Financial Constraints
Input-output Analysis
Non-publicly Listed Firms
