摘要
文章基于2006~2015年中国社会状况综合调查与国家统计年鉴提供的数据,采用Logistic回归与断点回归方法实证检验了高等教育扩张对劳动者技能失配的影响。研究结果表明,自高校扩招以来,高等教育人口的快速增长,导致高学历劳动力供求失衡,这不仅降低了高等教育人口从事高技能工作的概率,也通过挤出效应对非高等教育人口的就业质量造成了消极影响。在高等教育人口内部,大专与本科及以上毕业生会相互挤占对方的就业资源,且前者对后者造成的冲击更大。进一步研究发现,由于高等教育扩张不是决定劳动力供求状况的唯一因素,上述影响会随其他因素的变化而发生改变。在经济增长速度较快和第三产业发达的地区,高等教育扩张对劳动者技能失配的影响相对较小。这意味着在发展高等教育的同时,应努力实现劳动力供求两端的良性互动,以供给侧结构性改革与产业升级为推手解决技能失配问题,释放高等教育扩张对经济发展质量的提升作用。
Based on the pooled cross-sectional data provided by the Chinese Social Survey and the National Statistical Yearbook from 2006 to 2015, this paper empirically studies the impact of higher education expansion on workers’skills mismatch by using Logistic Regression and Regression Discontinuity. The results show that, since the higher education expansion, the explosive growth of highly educated population has led to the imbalance between supply and demand of highly educated labor, which not only reduces the probability of highly educated workers engaging in high-skilled work, but also affects the employment quality of low-educated workers through the crowding-out effect. Within the highly educated population, college graduates and university graduates occupy each other’s employment resources, and the former has a stronger impact on the latter. Further research finds that, because the higher education expansion is not the only factor affecting the supply and demand of labor, the above impact will change as other factors change. In regions with fast economic growth and developed tertiary industry, the impact of higher education expansion on the workers’skills mismatch is relatively small. These findings suggest that efforts should be made to realize the benign interaction between the supply and demand of labor force, and the supply-side reform and industrial upgrading should be used to solve the problem of skills mismatch and release the role of higher education expansion in improving the quality of economic development.
作者
蒋帆
张学志
Jiang Fan;Zhang Xuezhi
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期96-109,128,共15页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“人力资本配置偏向公共部门对经济发展的影响研究:理论、机制与经验证据”(编号:71803199)的阶段性成果
