摘要
分析粤港澳大湾区城市间经济辐射力,引入最大引力线法探讨大湾区未来新的节点城市,采用可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)对影响大湾区内城市间经济辐射力的因素进行实证回归,找出大湾区未来发展的主体思路。结果显示:广州仍是大湾区的核心城市,其次为深圳和香港。广州的主要受力地区为珠江口西岸城市,珠江口东岸则为深圳的主要受力区域,香港的经济辐射力较弱。广州和深圳仍是大湾区主要节点城市,中山正逐步发展成为珠江口西岸新的节点城市。影响大湾区城市间经济辐射力的首要因素是交通基础设施,其次为区域一体化创新,人才的区域内流动和极化发展策略也有助于提高城市间经济辐射力,相反,产业结构高级化不利于最大化经济辐射力。湾区未来发展应以核心城市为增长极,构建“四纵三横”经济带,其中经济发展轴的建设尤为重要。
The paper analyze the inter-city economic radiation of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area. At the same time, adopt the maximum gravity line method to explore the new node cities in the area. Finally use the feasible generalized least squares method(FGLS) to empirically test the factors that affect the inter-city economic radiation so as to show the main ideas for the future development of the Greater Bay Area.The paper find that Guangzhou is still the core city of the Greater Bay Area, followed by Shenzhen and Hong Kong. The main force area in Guangzhou is the west coast of the Pearl River. On the contrary, the east coast of the Pearl River is the main influence area of Shenzhen. The economic radiation power of Hong Kong remains weak. The maximum gravity line model confirms the above results, and find that Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still the major node cities in the Greater Bay Area. Zhongshan is gradually developing into a new node city on the west bank of the Pearl River estuary. Empirical regression results shows that transportation infrastructure is the main factor affecting the economic radiation of cities in the Greater Bay Area. Secondly, regional integration innovation, intra-regional flow of talents and polarization development strategy will also increase economic radiation among cities. On the contrary, the advance of industrial structure can't conducive to maximizing economic radiation. Based on the analysis results, the development of the greater Bay Area in the future should taking the core city as the growth pole and constructing the "four vertical and three horizontal" economic belt. The construction of an economic development axis is particularly important.
作者
陈子真
雷振丹
CHEN Zizhen;LEI Zhendan(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Economics and Management, Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China)
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期57-62,共6页
Areal Research and Development
关键词
经济辐射力
最大引力线
可行广义最小二乘
粤港澳大湾区
economic radiation
maximum gravity line
feasible generalized least squares
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay
