摘要
人民币国际化在2010年至2015年期间取得持续快速进展,但在2016年至2017年期间却陷入了停滞。人民币国际化进程陷入停滞的原因,既包括人民币汇率变动、中美利差变动、资本流出管制变动、中国金融风险上升等周期性因素,也源自中国政府推进人民币国际化的旧“三位一体”策略(跨境贸易与投资的人民币结算+离岸人民币金融中心+双边本币互换)的内在缺陷。从2018年起,中国政府似乎已经开始通过新的“三位一体”策略(人民币计价的原油期货交易+加快开放国内金融市场+鼓励“一带一路”沿线的人民币使用)来推动人民币国际化。与旧策略相比,新策略更加重视培育人民币的计价货币功能、更加重视向非居民投资者提供多样化的人民币金融产品、更加重视培育人民币的海外真实需求。因此,未来的人民币国际化进程可能变得更加平稳与更可持续。
Rapid progress has been made in RMB internationalization during the 2010-2015 period;however, it stagnated during the period of 2016-2017. Causes of RMB internationalization stagnation include not only cyclical factors such as the reverse of RMB’s appreciation expectations, the shrinking of China-US interest rate spread, the strengthening of China’s capital outflow control and the rise of China’s financial risks, but the intrinsic deficiencies of the old trinity arrangement of RMB internationalization strategy. It seems that the Chinese government has begun to promote a new trinity strategy to promote RMB internationalization through pushing RMB-denominated crude oil future transactions, accelerating domestic financial market opening-up, and encouraging the use of RMB along Belt & Road Initiative.Compared with the old strategy, the new strategy emphasizes more on developing RMB’s invoicing functions, providing diversified RMB assets to non-resident investors, and cultivating real needs for RMB overseas. The transition of RMB internationalization strategy would make the future’s RMB internationalization process more stable and sustainable.
作者
张明
李曦晨
Zhang Ming;Li Xichen
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期80-98,6-7,共20页
International Economic Review
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“‘一带一路’战略实施中推进人民币国际化问题研究”（项目号：2015ZDA017）的资助
