摘要
着眼于常州农业产业结构的优势、问题及原因,基于1991-2016年常州市农业统计资料,以农民可支配收入和农林牧渔产值构建计量模型,考察常州市农业产业结构调整对农民收入的影响。实证结果表明,农民可支配收入与农林牧渔产值之间存在协整关系,农林牧渔产值增加会促进农民增收,通过脉冲响应和方差分解的结果来看,牧业的发展对增加农民收入的效果显著,畜牧业结构的调整为农业产业结构调整的重点。从常州市农业产业内部和整体优化调整的角度,提出常州市农业产业结构调整与农民增收战略。
Focusing on the advantages, problems and causes of Changzhou's agricultural industrial structure, based on the agricultural statistics of Changzhou city from 1991 to 2016, the quantitative model of farmers' disposable income and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery production value was constructed to investigate the impact of Changzhou' s agricultural industrial structure adjustment on farmers' income.The empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the disposable income of farmers and the value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.The increase of the value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery will increase the income of farmers.According to the results of impulse response and variance decomposition, the development of animal husbandry will increase the income of farmers .The effect is remarkable, and the adjustment of the animal husbandry structure is the focus of the adjustment of the agricultural industry structure. From the perspective of the internal and overall optimization and adjustment of Changzhou,s agricultural industry, the paper puts forward the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and the strategy of increasing farmers' income in Changzhou.
作者
金珈印
Jin JiaYin(School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023)
出处
《粮食科技与经济》
2019年第7期112-118,共7页
Food Science And Technology And Economy
关键词
常州市
农业产业结构调整
农民增收
战略安排
Changzhou city
agricultural industry structure adjustment
farmers' income increase
strategic arrangement
