摘要
基于MIKE21模型系统对滨海近岸海洋动力环境进行模拟分析,并根据实测水文数据对模型进行可靠性验证。采用MIKE 21/3 SA溢油分析模块搭建溢油风险数值模型,综合滨海近岸的特殊生态环境分布概况,在溢油高发区组合了8种特定的溢油情景,对近岸主要环境敏感目标在72小时内的受污染情况进行预测分析。结果显示,溢油污染对盐城珍禽保护区、岸线、重要经济鱼类"三场一通道"、海水养殖区以及海域旅游区均存在一定的影响,其中珍禽保护区和岸线受影响最大,"三场一通道"次之,海水养殖区和旅游区最小。滨海珍禽保护区北区和南区最早受影响的时间分别为第16、30h;沿海岸线、"三场一通道"、海水养殖区及海域旅游区最早受影响的时间分别为第20、35、18、28h。
Based on the MIKE21 model system, the dynamic environment is simulated and analyzed off shore the coast of Binhai, and the reliability of the model is verified according to the measured hydro logical data? The MIKE 21/3 SA oil spill analysis module is used to establish a 2-D oil spill risk model. Based on the general ecological environment of the Binhai area, eight specific oil spill scenarios were composed in the zone with high spill risk. The pollution situation of the main environmental sensitive targets within 72 hours were analyzed. The results showed that oil spill pollution had effect on Yancheng Nature Reserve, shoreline, important economic fishing, mariculture area and coastal tourist area, among which the most affected are the nature reserve and the shoreline, the mariculture and coastal tourist areas take the second places, and the important economic fishery areas are the least af fected ? The earliest influencing time was 16 hours in the northern and 30 hours in the southern of the Yancheng Nature Reserve? The earliest influencing time along the coastline was 20, 35, 18 and 28 hours, in which the "three field one channel" was 35 hours, the mariculture area was 18 hours and the coastal tourist area was 28 hours.
作者
郭健
孔善云
杨红
潘彬彬
崔维成
张午
GUO Jian;KONG Shanyun;YANG Hong;PAN Binbin;CUI Weicheng;ZHANG Wu(Shanghai Ocean Unversity,Marine and Science College,Shanghai 201306,China;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Hadal Science and Technology,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《海洋湖沼通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第4期30-39,共10页
Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(51439004)
上海市科学技术委员会资助项目(15DZ1207000)资助
关键词
滨海近岸
溢油
环境敏感区
风险模拟
影响预测
offshore Binhai
oil spill
environment sensitive area
risk simulation
impact prediction
