摘要
根据精河流域1957—2012年的气温、降水和径流量等资料,分析了精河流域近55a来径流量的变化趋势和周期特征,研究了河川径流及对气候变化的响应关系,并建立基于多变量时间序列自回归CAR(Controlled Auto-regressive)径流预测模型。结果表明:(1)精河径流在年内分配不均,季节变化明显,夏季集中,枯水期长且枯季径流量小。6-9月为径流连续最大4个月,占全年径流量的74%。(2)从20世纪80年代开始,河川径流量增加,持续至90年代,在21世纪有减小的趋势,1981—2005年平均年径流总量比1957—1980年增加了3.24%。(3)精河流域年径流量序列在21a和13a左右的振荡周期最为明显,其次是32a和9a,而其中的21a和13a时间尺度上的振荡是全时域的。(4)建立了径流与降水和气温的CAR模型,发现拟合平均相对误差为6.54%,均方根误差为0.039。用CAR模型模拟河流年径流量误差在可接受范围内,可以利用该模型对精河流域年径流量进行预测。
Runoff is a complex hydro-climatic process influenced by temperature and precipitation. Based on hydrological and climatic data from 1957 to 2012, this paper presents a multi-variate time series controlled auto-regressive (CAR) model, and studies the climate change and its effects on runoff in Jinghe River, northwest China. The runoff in Jinghe River was distributed uneven and has obvious seasonal change. It was concentrated on summer and has along dry season with less runoff. The monthly maximum river runoff was from June to September, which accounting for 74% of annual runoff. The runoff increased since the 1980s and continued to the 1990s, but there was a trend of decreasing in the 21st century. The average annual runoff from 1981 to 2005 increased by 3.24% from 1957 to 1980. The oscillatory period of annual runoff in Jinghe River was 21 a and 13 a, and this period were more obvious, followed by 32 a and 9 a. The oscillation with a time scale of 21 a and 13 a was a full-time domain. The MRE is 6.54%, the MAE is 0.84×10^8 m^3 , and the RMSE is 0.039. The CAR model passed the F-test and residual test, and the change trend of calculated and measured values of annual runoff is consistence, which means that the model was reasonable.
作者
胡文峰
陈玲玲
姚俊强
何清
HU Wenfeng;CHEN Lingling;YAO Junqiang;HE Qing(Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037,China;Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Center of Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research,Urumqi 830002,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2019年第4期24-29,共6页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
中国博士后科学基金(2016M592874,2019M653905XB)
国家自然科学基金(41375101,41605067,41505025)共同资助
关键词
河川径流
气候变化
响应关系
精河
runoff
climate change
hydrological response
Jinghe River
