摘要
教育信息化项目是个极其复杂的系统,文章使用Vensim■PLE软件,借助在风险管控研究中常用的系统动力学方法,开展教育信息化风险管理研究。在文献调研的基础上,文章筛选关键风险影响因素,利用教育信息化项目实证数据,从主体风险、客体风险、技术风险、政策风险、财务风险五个方面构建基于系统动力学视角的教育信息化项目风险模型,并选取某一电子书包研发与应用项目进行模拟仿真研究。结果表明,教育信息化项目在主体方面极易出现风险;技术创新、项目后期运维、人力资源与组织结构、对政策的了解程度等变量对教育信息化项目风险产生较大影响,应在相关风险管控中引起注意。
The educational informationization project is an extremely complex system.With the help of the Vensim○RPLE software,this paper applied the system dynamics method commonly used in the risk management research to conduct the risk management research of educational informationization.Based on the literature review,selecting key risk effect factors and using the empirical data of educational informationization project,this paper constructed the risk model of educational informationization project from the aspects of subject risk,object risk,technical risk,policy risk and the financial risk.In addition,an e-book schoolbag development and application project was selected to conduct the simulation research.Results showed that the educational informationization project was prone to risks in the respect of subject.In addition,technical innovation,post-project operation and maintenance,human resource and organizational structure,understanding degree of policies and other variables have great influences on the risk of education information project,and attention should be given in relevant risk management and control.
作者
钱冬明
王幸娟
罗安妮
QIAN Dong-ming;WANG Xing-juan;LUO An-ni(National Institutes of Education Policy Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai,China 200062;Department of Education Information,Technology,East China Normal University,Shanghai,China 200062;China Telecom,China Telecom College,Shanghai,China 201315)
出处
《现代教育技术》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第8期49-56,共8页
Modern Educational Technology
基金
全国教育科学“十二五”规划2013年度国家一般课题“教育信息化项目风险的系统动力学分析与对策”(项目编号:BCA130021)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
系统动力学
教育信息化项目
风险管理
电子书包
system dynamics
educational informationization
risk management
e-schoolbag
